Analysis

Sure Start was one of the flagship policies of the Labour years, and the Coalition Government has just underlined its commitment to keeping it going. But in this edition of Analysis Fran Abrams asks a question. To many, it's a seriously heretical one: is Sure Start worth saving? Twelve years and £10 billion since it began, some are still struggling to describe what Sure Start has achieved for children.

No university tuition fees, free personal care for the elderly, reduced prescription charges. In all sorts of ways, Scotland seems to have kept a level of public service the rest of the UK is denied. How has this happened, and can Scotland continue to enjoy this as overall UK spending is cut? Will English resentment grow if Scotland is seen to be enjoying an unfair advantage? Or can the SNP persuade Scots that their economic vision will deliver a public service paradise? And how will all this flow into the increasingly urgent debate about Scotland's constitutional future after the SNP's recent electoral success? Instead of all the theoretical debate about Scottish independence, Anne McElvoy discovers the hard bargaining already underway about who gets the best UK deal, and who pays for it - a deal that will be crucial in deciding whether the UK will survive. Presenter: Anne McElvoy Producer: Chris Bowlby.

Justin Webb, the BBC's former North America Editor, regards the United States with affection and respect. But he is worried that America is in denial about the extent of its financial problems and therefore incapable of dealing with the gravest crisis the country has ever faced. A decade of tax cuts and increased public spending took the United States from an era of budget surpluses to one of growing deficits. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that federal debt could reach 90 per cent of GDP within a decade. The nation's partisan political culture, argue some, means its leaders are incapable of taking the necessary action to avert financial disaster and a loss of international influence. Justin Webb examines the consequences of failing to deal with the growing debt and looks for any signs that the United States might start to tackle its problems before it is too late. Interviewees include Diane Coyle, David Frum, Richard Haass, Jeffrey Sachs and Anne Applebaum. Producer: Bill Law.

"The eruption of democracy movements across the Middle East and North Africa is, even in its early stages, the most important development of the early 21st century." These were the words of Foreign Secretary William Hague May 2011. Events from Cairo to Benghazi have shaken the very foundations of the Middle East, and with it the West's longstanding friendships with Arab dictators. But what will happen next?In this week's Analysis, Edward Stourton meets Foreign Secretary Hague and explores the map of the new Middle East as seen from London, Washington and Brussels. Amid the talk of massive economic investment, customs unions, and a newfound support for democratic transition, what will really change in terms of Western relations with the Middle East?The "Arab Spring" came just as the world began to recover from the 2008 crash -- with oil prices already high. Edward looks at how the economic pressures will shape our policy, and explores divisions within the EU -- with some nations afraid of opening up to the Ara

Edward Stourton asks if the Egyptian revolution spells the end of old-style Islamism. As groups like the Muslim Brotherhood embrace democracy, how will they - and Egypt - change? The overthrow of Hosni Mubarak has been described as the Middle East's first "post-Islamic" revolution: there were no religious slogans or chanting in Tahrir Square and the protestors we saw on television were largely young, seemingly secular liberals. But Islam is likely to play a major role in the development of post-revolution Egypt, with the Muslim Brotherhood the biggest and best organised political force in the country. Edward Stourton asks what kind of society Egypt's Islamists want to create and explores how they are changing as they form political parties and prepare to contest their first fully democratic elections.

Time was when the City of London and the financial services industry generally were the apple of most politicians' eyes. The fabulous wealth they generated and taxes they paid seemed to set Britain on the road to lasting prosperity without having to worry about its manufacturing sector. With the crash, the political consensus has turned. Now, metal-bashing is back in favour and the bankers can do no right. The ritual call, heard at least once a generation, for Britain's economy to be more like Germany's is echoing across the land again.But is making things rather than financial innovation really the way to make Britain's economy grow faster? When we have a competitive edge in banking and managing money, should we cast it aside? And why should Britain's economy be the same as that of other countries? Janan Ganesh of the "Economist" asks if we should be turning our back on the goose that has laid our golden eggs for so many years. And, with no immediate signs that manufacturing is taking off on a bountiful new

Is our NHS debate avoiding the key issue? The talk is of another reorganisation of the NHS and greater efficiencies enabling the NHS in England to face the future. But the overall challenge goes much deeper, and the politicians dare not address it. As well as the pressures of demography and inflation in health care costs, the health service faces what it has always faced - public expectation of ever better health care means an ever greater proportion of our national wealth has been spent on health. Now it is said that this must simply stop. But does this hope - one in a long history of so far unrealised hopes -simply obscure the more painful reality. One way or another, privately or publicly, our health care ambitions have to be paid for, and we are failing to decide how. In 'Unhealthy Expectations' Michael Blastland looks at how this problem has loomed for years but never been faced - at least not in open political debate. He explores what the real choices are if constantly improved care is to be provided -

Labour's traditional working class supporters are abandoning the party in their droves. But can Labour win them back without alienating the middle-class voters it needs to win the next election? David Goodhart explores the tensions between two traditions in the Labour movement - a liberal wing focussed on equality and diversity and a conservative strand that is more concerned with issues of solidarity and community. And he examines the new Blue Labour school of thought, which believes that the best way to unite the two traditions is to rethink the Big State approach that became a defining element of the post-war Labour Party's identity.

The prime minister has proposed a new 'muscular liberalism', aimed at better integrating Britain's Muslims. It aims to counter the alienation that has led to a few young British Muslim men being prepared to mount terrorist attacks. David Walker asks what the new policy will mean on the ground, and how easily it can be reconciled with government plans for more local diversity and faith schools.

Investigative journalist and author Fran Abrams looks at a popular but controversial programme designed to teach children emotional and social skills in schools. The concept of emotional intelligence has almost become a global ideology. It's taught, in one form or another, in around 70% of secondary and 90% of primary schools in England and is popular in Scotland and Wales too. But what exactly is emotional intelligence, can it really be developed and how sound are its scientific claims?With contributions from:Dave Read Workshop leaderProfessor Roger Weissberg President of CASELProfessor Katherine Weare Southampton UniversityPupils Bournemouth Park SchoolProfessor Richard Layard Labour peerAngela Hutchison Head, Bournemouth Park SchoolProfessor Neil Humphrey Manchester University.

The autocratic regimes of North Africa & the Middle East enjoyed many years of military, political and financial support from the United States government. Dr Maha Azzam looks at the recent history of US involvement in the region, including the brief shift in policy during the presidency of George W Bush, and the role that Israel plays in US/Arab relations. As violence & unrest spread throughout the region, will US policy vary state-by-state depending on its own interests or will President Barack Obama embrace the pro-democracy protests wherever they emerge? What expectations do the protestors have of American support and what levers can the US pull in order to assist them? And if it is seen to falter in its support for the protestors will this seriously undermine US influence in the long-term? Dr Maha Azzam is an Associate Fellow of Chatham House.Contributors Dr Shadi Hamid, Brookings Institute, Qatar Shashank Joshi, Royal United Services Institute, London Elliott Abrams, Council of Foreign Relati

The Orange Book, published in 2004, is a collection of political essays by leading Liberal Democrats. Although the writers come from a range of viewpoints, the book has been seen as an attempt by party right wingers to reclaim the party's economic liberal origins in the nineteenth century and give it a new modern emphasis. But for some leading Liberal Democrats these ideas are now closer to tenets of Conservative thought. So will the Orange Bookers bind the coalition ever closer together or lead to fractures and even splits in Liberal Democrat ranks? Edward Stourton talks to one of the leading Orange Book Liberal Democrats, David Laws MP, about the philosophy behind the book and why they were so keen to publish it. He discusses the consequences for the party of the gap which has now emerged between public perceptions of where the party stands on major issues and where its leadership's inclinations lie. And he discusses what the longer-term implications of the Orange Bookers' relationship with David Cameron's

The "big society" - the idea that volunteers should take over some of the functions of the state - is the most over-used policy phrase of the moment. But how will the theory work in practice? Chris Bowlby looks at the big society on the ground in Oxford - from the affluent streets of the City's North to the deprived estates of Blackbird Leys - and tries to figure out the consequences of expecting communities to do more for themselves.

The role of credit in the build up to the global financial crisis is well known - but what has our reliance on credit been doing to the wider economy and to human behaviour? The expansion of consumer credit has been encouraged by social democratic as well as centre right governments. But some on the left believe that the growth of the financial sector has given birth to a novel form of capitalism and with that a new kind of worker exploitation. Paul Mason meets the economists of "financialisation" who believe that credit has become the defining relationship between workers and employers, citizens and public services. Paul Mason is Economics Editor of Newsnight and the author of Meltdown: The End of the Age of Greed.

Was the economic crisis caused by fundamental problems with the system rather than a mere failure of policy?Over two weeks, Analysis investigates two schools of economics with radical solutions.This week, Jamie Whyte looks at the free market Austrian School of FA Hayek. The global recession has revived interest in this area of economics, even inspiring an educational rap video. "Austrian" economists believe that the banking crisis was caused by too much regulation rather than too little. The fact that interest rates are set by central banks rather than the market is at the heart of the problem, they argue. Artificially low interest rates sent out the wrong signals to investors, causing them to borrow to spend on "malinvestments", such as overpriced housing. Jamie Whyte is head of research and publishing at Oliver Wyman, a management consulting firm. He is a former lecturer in philosophy at Cambridge University and the author of Bad Thoughts: A Guide to Clear Thinking. Contributors: Prof Steven Horwitz, St La

Trust was the subject of moral philosopher Professor Onora O'Neill's acclaimed Reith Lectures in 2002. Enron, political sleaze, the foot and mouth crisis, the Bristol heart babies scandal and the collapse of Equitable Life had contributed to a perception - challenged by Professor O'Neill - that we were living through a crisis of trust in our institutions. Eight years on, the subject is no less topical and so Professor O'Neill returns to Radio 4 to be interviewed about her latest reflections on trust by Edward Stourton. The intervening years have seen no let-up in the stream of highly publicised political scandals, financial crises and blunders by state officials. Yet levels of trust have remained remarkably consistent. Furthermore, argues Professor O'Neill, the public debate about building trust misses the point: we should be more concerned about levels of trustworthiness rather than levels of trust in society. Attempts to restore trust in certain professions or organisations do little to help individuals wit

Presenter Chris Bowlby asks whether a state welfare system can ever distinguish between those who deserve help and those who do not. As the recession bites and public spending cuts loom there have been calls, on both sides of the political debate, for a re-moralisation of welfare. Some say that the entitlement culture has gone too far, others that the hard-working poor should not be footing the bill for those who choose not to take a job. When did the language change and what does a change in vocabulary really mean? And even if desirable can distinctions between welfare recipients be made in practice? If there are time limits on the receipt of welfare will more people end up better-off in work or worse-off unable to work? Analysis will look at what history can teach us about making moral distinctions between the poor - both when the economy is booming & when it's contracting. And what of those, such as the children of welfare recipients, caught up in the debate : can it ever right to reduce the money w

Ken Clarke has promised a "rehabilitation revolution" in which private investors will fund projects aimed at cutting the re-offending rate. If the projects succeed, the government will pay those investors a return. But if the projects fail, the investors will lose their shirts.You can see why the idea is attractive to ministers. In a period of spending restraint - and with a huge and hugely expensive prison population - a 'payment by results' system promises to fund rehabilitation projects from future savings.But will it work? After all, rehabilitation is hardly a new idea. And so far, it seems, most attempts have made little difference. So the question is whether a new way of paying for criminal rehabilitation might deliver better results. There's unrestrained excitement among some of those working with offenders. And deep scepticism among some criminologists. Emma Jane Kirby investigates.Interviewees include: the Justice Secretary, the Rt Hon Kenneth Clarke MP; criminologists Professor Sir Anthony Bottoms a

To take successful military action, you do not only need soldiers, aircraft or warships. The support of the society and political leadership is crucial in sustaining armed action. Yet public involvement in current debates about the future of the military has been very limited, as old ideas of 'leaving it to the professionals' prevail.So what happens when society becomes divorced from the business of defending itself? In liberal Britain, some sections of society seem more and more alienated from military action. Using force clashes with modern concerns about human rights and risk-avoidance. New forms of media have cut through the more sanitised portrayal of war in the mainstream media, adding to public concern. And politicians, scarred by the unpopularity of recent military actions, noting the grief which every single casualty prompts, are likely to be ever more wary of future warfare. Within the military too there is change, and friction. New technology is taking armed action further away from old ideas of he

Analysis celebrates its 40th birthday by making its own history the subject of its trademark examination of the facts. The Director General of the BBC, Mark Thompson, recently told the New Statesman that in decades past the organisation's current affairs output had displayed a left wing bias. He could not have had in mind the early years of Analysis. "We tried to avoid received opinion like the plague," says the programme's founder editor George Fischer. He required his producers to look at issues from scratch and to go beyond the bien pensant agenda. In doing so they spotted issues that others missed. Amongst the themes they identified as important were the depth of the Thatcherite project before the term Thatcherism was coined; the tensions likely to emerge in the feminist movement; and the potential for disaster in Zimbabwe if expectations over land reform were not fulfilled. The programme's willingness to question fashionable assumptions attracted some accusations of political bias. Was that fair? Michael