Bloomberg Benchmark

Brexit. A Trump win. 2016 was full of unexpected surprises that rocked the global economy in ways that even most experienced market observers couldn't have predicted. But what does 2017 have in store? Benchmark hosts Dan Moss and Kate Smith speak with Bloomberg's John Fraher, creator of "The Pessimist Guide," to see what's in store in a worst-case scenario of the year to come.

Donald Trump has pledged to get tough with China on trade and currency, already tensing up relations with the world's second-largest economy. But it could be worse: President Woodrow Wilson signed a treaty that gave Japan control of part of China, and that didn't go over too well. John Pomfret joins us to take the long view of relations between the U.S. and China. The longtime China correspondent for the Washington Post and author of the new book "The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom" joins Dan and Scott to discuss what the incoming U.S. president can learn from two centuries of contact, and how, as he puts it, stable ties with the U.S. can "make China great again."

America's central bank finally got around to raising interest rates for the first time in a year and signaled borrowing costs will keep rising from their currently low levels. Should you rush out to buy that house? Will savers get more bang for their bucks? Are more people going to drown in credit-card debt? Join Dan, Scott and special guest Steve Matthews, a longtime Bloomberg Fed reporter, as we discuss just why, exactly, you should care.

From a fatal highway bridge collapse in Minneapolis to LaGuardia Airport's "third-world" experience, America's failing infrastructure is no secret. To bring the country up to date, advisers to President-elect Donald Trump have floated the idea of a federal infrastructure bank, allowing cities and states to borrow at exceptionally low interest rates and encouraging private investment. Will it work? We check in on America's neighbor to the north, where Francois-Philippe Champagne, Canada's parliamentary secretary to the finance minister, joins Kate and Scott to explain that nation's newly announced Infrastructure Bank and what the U.S. might be able to learn.

President-elect Donald Trump is on the verge of igniting a trade war with China. He might want to first listen to Jon Huntsman's thoughts on why that's a bad idea. The former ambassador to China, Utah governor and onetime GOP presidential candidate shares his insights into the Middle Kingdom at a time when the nation is undergoing its own economic transformation and faces a political crossroads. You won't want to miss the hints he gives Scott Lanman and Daniel Moss at his own political future in the U.S.

First came Brexit. Then Trump. Now the world's attention turns once again across the Atlantic to France, where a presidential election is coming up and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen could be the next politician to upend the establishment. The nation is reeling from terror attacks, the economy is in lousy shape, and President Francois Hollande's popularity is dismal. Nicolas Veron, a scholar at think tanks Bruegel and the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joins Scott and Kate to gauge the odds -- and potential impact of -- this next political earthquake.

Millions of Americans could help solve a looming labor shortage for certain U.S. industries. Problem is, they're felons. Are ex-cons who can't get jobs holding back economic growth? Join us on Benchmark this week to hear from Keri Blakinger, who served time in state prison for heroin possession before getting out, finishing college (at Cornell) and managing to get a job in, of all things, journalism. What's it like to go to an office cubicle from a prison cell?

In the wake of Donald Trump's surprise presidential victory, the Benchmark team has a few questions: Is trade with Mexico destined to end? Is our relationship with China about to drastically shift? Is the U.S. about to experience a Reagan-esque stimulus? Take a trip around the world as Kate, Dan and Scott discuss what the president-elect means for the global economy as we know it.

Falling food prices may be good for your Thanksgiving tab this year, but they're doing a number on the U.S. economy. Food commodity prices have fallen over 20 percent from early 2015, helping to keep inflation at bay and wages stagnant, according to a research note from Goldman Sachs. As prices have fallen, the cost of eating out has stayed the same - what gives? This week, co-hosts Kate Smith and Dan Moss are joined by Al Di Meglio, the chef behind buzzy new South Williamsburg restaurant Barano, to talk about what falling food prices mean for the notoriously difficult restaurant business.

How tight is the U.S. labor market? So much that one trucking company is offering $5,000 signing bonuses to lure new drivers. Yet millions of Americans remain out of the workforce -- people who might be candidates for a job that, while tough, takes relatively little training and can't be shipped overseas. What's going on here? Two guests share their theories with co-hosts Scott Lanman and Kate Smith: Scott's uncle, Kenny Hahn, a professional truck driver for almost four decades, and Justin Fox, a Bloomberg View columnist who has written about the industry.

If U.S. childcare costs are so expensive, why do people who walk your dog make more money than the workers who take care of your kids? Is there any way it could become cheaper to send your kid to day care than to attend a public university? Our co-hosts are interested: Scott because he has two young daughters in preschool, and Kate because she pays a sizable sum to have her dog walked. Joining them are Scott Cotter, CEO of Childcare Network, which operates 249 centers across the southeastern U.S., and fellow Bloomberg podcaster Rebecca Greenfield, who takes time from her Game Plan show to discuss her reporting on childcare costs.

How did a diminishing slice of Western economies come to so dominate the political narrative? The roar of the white working class, mainly in onetime industrial powerhouses, put Donald Trump within shouting distance of the White House, ejected Britain from the EU and fueled the surge of far-right parties in France and Germany. J.D. Vance, bestselling author of "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis" tells Daniel Moss and Scott Lanman how we got here. The onetime resident of Middletown, Ohio shares his tip on who will win Ohio and, in the process, the presidency.

And you might want to cross San Francisco off the list, too. In the past 30 years, the most expensive metro areas in the U.S. have seen their housing prices grow at a much faster pace than the least expensive markets, according to a new report out from Trulia. That rapid increase has caused certain areas - especially New York's long-envied Manhattan borough - to be closed off to not only the successful and wealthy, but those that were also raised by the successful and wealthy. Kate Smith and Dan Moss talk to one half of the Case-Shiller Index and the authority on housing prices, Robert Shiller, on what's driving the prices up and whether New York real estate is all it's cracked up to be.

The world's most powerful central bank kept interest rates unchanged today, but the Federal Reserve also suggested an increase is imminent -- perhaps as soon as December. Join Dan, Scott and Fed reporter Matt Boesler on a special Benchmark podcast to figure out what's new and what's not.

Can a nation's entire economy fit on one smartphone app? In China, that day is almost here. More than 700 million Chinese -- more than double the entire U.S. population -- use WeChat. It's an all-purpose super-app that does the job of Facebook, Uber, Paypal, Tinder and many other apps, making it an invaluable tool for the Asian nation's rising middle class. That's helped give WeChat's parent Tencent, a stock-market valuation larger than any other company outside the U.S. -- even bigger than Wal-Mart. But does WeChat actually contribute to China's GDP? Or are there better ways to measure its value? Economist Gan Li, who splits his time between the U.S. and China, and Dune Lawrence, a former Bloomberg correspondent in Beijing, join Kate and Scott to pin down the answers.

More than a decade after the first Internet boom, U.S. productivity growth has stagnated and the economy has been unable to break out of 2 percent expansion. This situation is testing even the most optimistic of forecasters, but in contrast to our recent guest Robert Gordon, MIT professor Erik Brynjolfsson is unbowed. Brynjolfsson -- who's also director of MIT's Initiative on the Digital Economy, and co-author of the book "The Second Machine Age" -- joins Daniel Moss and Scott Lanman to explain why he thinks the current wave of advances in technology means we don't have to worry about secular stagnation after all.

Sometimes the monthly U.S. jobs report delivers a clear signal on the labor market and the economy. This is not one of those times. Fortunately, the Bloomberg Benchmark crew is here to talk about the burning questions raised by the latest report, including the implications for the Federal Reserve and what the wage numbers mean. In this special bonus episode of the Benchmark podcast, reporter Jeanna Smialek joins hosts Dan Moss and Scott Lanman to break it all down.

Happily ever after doesn't come cheap in the U.S. Couples looking to tie the knot pay an average of about $30,000 between things like caterers, flowers and photographers to capture the day. But why is it that weddings cost more than other large-scale parties? In this week's Benchmark, former White House economic adviser Austan Goolsbee explains how the concepts that we learned in freshman year economics class determine why celebrating eternal love costs so much. Kate Smith is also joined by guest host Brian Chappatta, a government bonds reporter at Bloomberg News and soon-to-be married man, who gives us his experience in planning a wedding.

When phone companies implored U.S. customers in 2003 to text more because they were lagging behind the rest of the world, it was all over. Almost. While we're used to a dizzying array of new apps each month and new "sharing economy" companies such as Uber and AirBnB transform the way we do business, one of the greatest periods of U.S. productivity was already behind us by 2005. The little gadgets we're addicted to now are nothing compared with the invention and adoption of the electric light, indoor plumbing and the automobile. That's according to Robert J. Gordon, author of "The Rise and Fall of American Growth" and a professor at Northwestern University. There's not much on the horizon to change all that, Gordon tells Scott Lanman and Daniel Moss. But take heart: A recession isn't likely anytime soon!

This week the Benchmark team takes a look at one of South Korea's most promising new exports: beauty products. Seoul is pivoting away from the country's reliance on government-sponsored companies like Samsung and LG and instead attempting to capitalize on its multi-generation tradition of expensive, multi-step skincare regimens. Women - and men - around the world are buying into the trend, helping overseas beauty sales for Korean beauty products to rise 73 last year. Co-hosts Kate Smith and Scott Lanman are joined by Nina Bahadur, a senior editor at Conde Nast, and Alicia Yoon, founder of the cult K-beauty e-commerce company Peach and Lily, to see just how much fancy face creams are helping South Korea's economy.