Bloomberg Surveillance

Thomas Barkin, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President, expects strong U.S. growth in the third quarter. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO, says she’s "shocked” markets haven’t been more tumultuous amid the uncertainty over another fiscal stimulus package. Daniel Boulud, Chef and Restaurateur, discusses the return of indoor dining in New York City. Nouriel Roubini, NYU Stern School of Business Professor and NourielToday.com Host, discusses the “severe” market risks he sees from the U.S. presidential election.

Bob Woodward, Washington Post Associate Editor and Author of "Rage," says he did not intend to release tapes of his interviews with President Trump at first. Jeanne Zaino, Iona College Professor of Political Science and Bloomberg Contributor, discusses what to watch for in the Trump and Biden debate. Mike Pyle, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist, says the risks around a contested election scenario are material. Joe Quinlan, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank Head of CIO Market Strategy, says markets have already priced in a Democratic sweep.

Mark Howard, BNP Paribas Senior Multi-Asset Specialist, sees investors pulling back amid the uncertain political environment. Lale Topcuoglu, JOHCM Senior Fund Manager, says Fed put is baked into markets. Representative French Hill, a Republican from Arkansas, expects a peaceful transfer of power. Timothy L. O'Brien, Bloomberg Opinion Senior Columnist, discusses President Trump's tax revelations.

President Donald Trump says he will nominate Judge Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court. If confirmed by the Senate, Barrett could cement the court’s rightward shift for a generation. Bloomberg's David Westin examines the implications in this special podcast.

Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist, explains why the firm halved its forecast for U.S. growth in the fourth quarter. Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Capital Markets Head of Derivatives Strategy, discusses fears that a delayed U.S. election result could upend markets. Jim Paulsen, The Leuthold Group Chief Investment Strategist, says this correction could have further to go. Julie Norman, University College London Political Science Professor, sees Republicans and Democrats moving towards more convergence on fiscal support.

David Kostin, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, makes the case for value stocks..Kathy Jones, Schwab Center for Financial Research Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says U.S. economy could see double-dip recession in the next 6 months without fiscal stimulus. Chris Krueger, Cowen Washington Research Group Policy Managing Director, says we may not get results on election night with the unprecedented amount of mail-in votes. Ethan Harris, BofA Securities Head of Global Economic Research, says the market has too many uncertainties on its plate and will continue to be under pressure for a while.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida says the central bank won’t consider raising interest rates from near zero until it actually achieves 2% inflation as well as full employment. Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Rate Strategy, says yields could drop dramatically if the U.S. election results are delayed. Victoria Fernandez, Crossmark Global Investments Chief Market Strategist, says free cash flow and management are important evaluations to see if a company can withstand the volatility anticipated in the coming quarter. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup Global Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says political gridlock has delayed more fiscal stimulus action despite the Fed and both political parties believing it to be necessary.

Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity Chief Market Strategist, cautions investors on playing politics with their portfolio. James Athey, Aberdeen Standard Investments Senior Investment Manager, says finding diversification is difficult in the world of one trade. Isaac Boltansky, Compass Point Research & Trading Director of Policy Research, says the next government fiscal package is effectively dead at the moment. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says colder temperatures could exacerbate unemployment.

Robert Kaplan, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President, sees Fed rates near zero for at least two or three years. Lisa Beattie Frelinghuysen, BanyanGlobal Principal and Former Clerk to late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, says there is a tremendous amount to learn from Ginsburg's friendship with Justice Antonin Scalia. Russell Wheeler, Brookings Institution Visiting Fellow and Former Deputy Director of the Federal Judicial Center, says there will be a lot of pressure to counteract a Supreme Court appointment this late in the election season. Timothy O'Brien, Bloomberg Opinion Senior Columnist, discusses the high-stakes battle over whether to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court ahead of the election.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President, discusses the Fed's new policy framework, the outlook for the U.S. economy and the state of U.S.-China trade relations. Techonomy CEO & Bloomberg Contributor David Kirkpatrick and Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow for International Economics Brad Setser weigh in on the game of chicken between China and the U.S. over TikTok. Rebecca Patterson, Bridgewater Director of Investment Research, examines the paradigm shift in central banking.

Michael Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist and Market Strategist, discusses monetary policy, inflation and the impact of stimulus measures on the economy. Michael Gapen, Barclays Chief U.S. Economist, says it is reasonable to expect low to mid-single digits for U.S. growth rates in the fourth quarter. Rebecca Minkoff, Fashion Designer, sees an opportunity for the fashion industry to reset amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President, discusses President Trump’s approach to foreign policy, why Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, and his views of the U.S. presidential race.

Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist, says stocks are entering a new phase where technology and growth companies will continue to significantly outperform. Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Chief Economist, says it's going to be tough to make further gains in retail sales. Kathy Hochul, New York Lieutenant Governor, says New York is not planning to dial back reopening, but is ready for a second wave of Covid-19. Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit Vice Chairman, says the shale industry is in survival mode right now and will be in that mode until next year. Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary-General, says the V-shaped recovery is not going to happen.

Paul Donovan, UBS Global Chief Economist, says markets are too pessimistic about recovery from a crisis. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, sees economy improving, but investors shouldn't get complacent. Robert Profusek, Jones Day Head of M&A, discusses the resurgence in global dealmaking. New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer says wealthy residents should be prepared to “step up and help” close a $4.2 billion deficit by paying higher taxes.

Bill Gross, PIMCO Co-Founder & Former Fixed Income Fund Manager, says the bond world is now a melding of the Fed and the Treasury. Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities Director of Equity Research & Analyst, says the pullback in technology stocks is healthy for the sector. Frances Donald, Manulife Asset Management Global Economist, says we are currently looking at a K-shaped recovery and job losses may become permanent. Pat Foye, MTA Chairman, says ridership is down past Great Depression levels.

Jean-Yves Fillion, BNP Paribas USA CEO, discusses markets and sustainability in a post-pandemic world. Michael Feroli, JPMorgan Chief U.S. Economist, examines the pandemic's impact on inflation. Michael Shaoul, Marketfield Asset Management CEO and Portfolio Manager, says the U.S. economy has enough support without the need of a stimulus bill at this time. Tom Michaud, KBW CEO, says that 9/11 was a story of resiliency which brought remarkable unity following the attacks.

Ken Leon, CFRA Director of Equity Research, discusses Citi's historic pick of Jane Fraser as the first female CEO of a major global bank. Carsten Brzeski, ING Chief Economist, says the European Central Bank is treading carefully. Kirk Hartman, Wells Fargo Asset Management President & Global CIO, says the gap between the momentum growth tech stocks and the value stocks is far too large and must close. Vadim Zlotnikov, Fidelity Institutional Asset Management President, says future levels of inflation will be driven by policies aimed at wealth distribution. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy Research, says the undecided sliver of voters within the U.S. population has shrunk to about 6%.

David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, urges investors to be disciplined as the U.S. economic recovery beings to slow down. Omar Aguilar, Schwab CIO of Passive Equity and Multi-Asset Strategies, discusses the bifurcation he sees in market activity. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Chief Oil Analyst, says the price of oil is finally catching up to fundamentals. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman and Co-Founder and Host of "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations," discusses his interview with Reed Hastings, Netflix Founder and Co-CEO.

Christopher Marangi, Gabelli Funds Co-CIO, says this correction is healthy and different. Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of U.S. Rates Strategy, says negative rates are not in the cards so there is only one way yields can go, either sideways or higher. Barry Ritholtz, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Ritholtz Wealth Management Founder, says a 10-20% pullback is overdue. Peter Westaway, Vanguard Chief European Economist, says the ECB is getting close to the end of the road for negative rates.

Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, shares the White House's view on the August jobs report. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Professor and Former Fed Governor, says take the August jobs data with a little grain of salt. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth College Professor of Economics, discusses the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic on younger generations. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, examines current market conditions as investors weigh a better-than-forecast jobs report.

Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Capital Markets Equity Derivatives Strategist, says volatility that will occur until November is fairly priced in markets. Steve Sadove, Former Saks CEO and Mastercard Senior Advisor, says data is starting to show a recovery in retail. Seema Shah, Principal Global Investors Chief Strategist, says markets are questioning the need for a fiscal stimulus based on the strength of the economic recovery. Michael Cloherty, UBS Head of U.S. Rates Strategy, says fixed income seems priced for perfection from the Fed.