Bloomberg Surveillance

Vitor Gaspar, IMF Director of Fiscal Affairs, says global debt is at some of the highest levels in history. Jim Paulsen, Leuthold Weeden Capital Management Chief Investment Officer, says U.S. markets are experiencing an expansion in a new bull market. Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor, says the migration of layoffs from small to large companies is causing an economic shift. Helane Becker, Cowen Senior Research Analyst, says up to 200,000 airline industry employees could lose their jobs in the fourth quarter.

Rob Waldner, Invesco Advisers Chief Strategist of Fixed Income & Head of Multi-Sector, says investors should do their homework before investing in assets that are dependent on economic recovery. Jill Carey Hall, Bank of America U.S. Equity Strategist & Head of U.S. SMID Cap Strategy, says small cap companies were a lot worse positioned before Covid-19 than before previous recessions. Michael Gapen, Barclays Chief U.S. Economist, says the service sector has only recovered about one-third of its lost jobs. Jason Farley, Johns Hopkins Nursing Professor, describes how antibody testing can help us determine a more accurate Covid-19 infection rate.

Ebrahim Rahbari, Citigroup Global Markets Global Head of FX Analysis & Content, says Brexit uncertainty will inevitably weigh on sterling and that the currency has found its bottom. Rep. Patrick McHenry, U.S. House Financial Services Committee Ranking Republican, says a tapering down of unemployment benefits may help in safely getting America's workforce back to normal. Ron Kirk, Former U.S. Trade Representative, says U.S. trade tariffs have compromised our ability to access the tools we need to fight Covid-19. Austan Goolsbee, University Of Chicago's Booth School of Business Professor, says the economies in the U.S. and Sweden will have a hard time recovering if the virus is not contained soon.

This is a special Bloomberg Surveillance podcast with our Chief Washington Correspondent Kevin Cirilli. Kevin spent the day talking to officials in the halls of the West Wing and we're putting those conversations together for you in this special podcast.

James Athey, Aberdeen Standard Investments Director, says it's very difficult for the world economy to thrive without the success of the United States. Isaac Boltansky, Compass Point Director of Policy Research, says Congress will likely roll out $1.5 trillion on subsequent stimulus spending. Jordan Rochester, Nomura FX Strategist, says U.S. growth will underperform the Eurozone this year, driving a weaker dollar. Ed Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodity Research, outlines opportunities in oil and natural gas.

Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross Asset Strategist, says the expectation of U.S. Fiscal stimulus is what is propelling economic expansion. Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, explains why she thinks the codependency between the U.S. & China has turned negative. Kathy Hochul, New York Lieutenant Governor, says there is no coronavirus recovery for the United States without the recovery of New York. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Chief Investment Strategist, expects the next stimulus bill to surpass one trillion dollars because of the resurgence of virus cases in the south.

Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says the shape of the next relief package is still up in the air. Jeffrey Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says the fiscal policy support for financial markets is being funded in the treasury market. Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, says big employment gains may be behind us as states reverse or halt reopening efforts. Keith Lockhart, Boston Pops Conductor, looks ahead to this year's socially-distanced Fourth of July Fireworks Spectacular.

Ambassador John Bolton, Former U.S. National Security Advisor & Author of "The Room Where it Happened,” says Trump's evolving explanation makes the U.S. ripe for the type of Russian interference that’s being alleged. Vasileios Gkionakis, Banque Lombard Odier & Cie FX Strategist, says the ingredients for a dollar downside are falling into place. Jan Loeys, JPMorgan Long-Term Investment Strategy Senior Adviser, says investors shouldn't be frustrated about short-term volatility between bond and equity markets. Stacey Widlitz, SW Retail Advisors President, says if retail companies shift to an appointment based format, they will see lower spending margins and increase overall returns online.

Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, says the economic recovery is more likely to look like rolling W’s than a V. Jes Staley, Barclays CEO, says the M&A market will not come back to major banks for a long time. David Lebovitz, JPMorgan Global Market Strategist, says the market has been standing on a three-legged stool: virus case growth, the outlook for economic reopening and the trajectory of corporate profits. Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, says the banking system is financing the Fed's asset purchases through an increase of money it has recently absorbed. Tom Forte, DA Davidson & Co Senior Research Analyst, says Amazon could exit 2020 with a unionized labor force.

Tony Dwyer, Cannacord Genuity Equity Strategist, says the Fed can't fix exponential doubt in credit markets with infinite debt. Dr. Jonathan Quick, The Rockefeller Foundation Managing Director of Pandemic Response, Preparedness and Prevention, says leaders need to get more consistent in their coronavirus messaging. Dan Gelber, Mayor of Miami Beach, says the greatest concern for local governments is getting citizens to abide by federal instructions to slow the spread of coronavirus. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Chief Economist, says we will see a fiscal cliff in July if Congress does not create financial stimulus support for Americans.

Anna Han, Wells Fargo Equity Strategist, the domestic political risk in the U.S. looks under-priced heading towards an election cycle. Brent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Chief Investment Strategist, says the Fed want you to take risk and will continue to try to get you to take risk. Kenneth Leon, CFRA Global Director of Industry & Equity Research, says projected loan losses for July could top $700 million. Brad Setser, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow, describes how the Covid-19 pandemic is shifting geopolitical dynamics around the globe. Tim Adams, Institute of International Finance President and CEO, discusses the U.S. Stress test results.

Adam Neumann had a vision: to make his startup WeWork a wildly successful company that would change the world. He convinced thousands of other people -- customers, employees, investors -- that he could make that dream a reality. And for a while, he did. He was one of the most successful startup founders in the world. But then, in the span of just a few months, everything changed. Foundering is a new serialized podcast from the journalists at Bloomberg Technology. This season, we’ll tell you the story of WeWork, a company that captured the startup boom of the 2010s and also may be remembered as a spectacular bust that marked the end of an era. Catch the first two episodes of Foundering, now available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.

LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers Basketball Player & SpringHill Co. Chairman, discusses the impact he has felt from the "Black Lives Matter" movement. Mark Howard, BNP Paribas Senior Multi-Asset Specialist, says there could be a rally in yields during the fourth quarter. Sébastien Page, T. Rowe Price Global Multi-Asset Division Head, says now is not the time to be the hero between value and growth stock investments. Mario Gabelli, Gabelli Funds Co-Chief Investment Officer for value investments and GAMCO chairman and CEO, says corporate issuance is putting a lid on the market.

Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, says a pickup in capital spending intentions is a reason to remain bullish on the U.S. recovery. Michelle Meyer, Bank of America Head of U.S. Equities, says the U.S. economy is starting to approach healing and recovery phase. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic policy, says Congress is still stalled on both stimulus and infrastructure spending. Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Global Head of FX Strategy, says the nominal rate of the dollar does not offer any significant yield pickup. Daniel Boulud, Chef & Restaurateur, says fine dining is suffering at the moment, but its not dead due to Covid-19.

Jim Bullard, St. Louis Fed President, says there are more questions than answers about yield curve control right now. Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says government action has massively prevented the amount of company bankruptcies throughout this recession. Megan Greene, Harvard Kennedy School Senior Fellow, says it will be difficult to avoid a double dip recession without state and local funding from the federal government. Chris Krueger, Cowen Managing Director, describes how crucial the November election will be for President Trump.

William Dudley, Former New York Federal Reserve President and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, warns that a $10 trillion Fed balance sheet could be coming, but says the risks seem manageable for now. James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist, says housing inflation is likely to put pressure on U.S. inflation. Patrick Foye, MTA Chairman & CEO, describes the health precautions being taken in the New York City subway system as the city moves into phase 2 of its reopening plan. Jane Foley, Rabobank FX Strategist, says if the markets stay optimistic due to central bank funding, the dollar will suffer.

Sadiq Khan, London Mayor, warns the recession the U.K. is facing could turn into a depression. Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank Chief Economist, says the Fed was correct in stabilizing financial markets, but the debt loads of companies have increased. Kathy Hochul, New York Lieutenant Governor, says New York City's economic return is an important part of the comeback for the entire nation. Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management CIO and Head of Global Fixed Income, says the real yield has been a causality of this economic crisis.

Leland Miller, China Beige Book International CEO, says loan demand will be the absolute key thing to watch in China for the next three or four months. Kate Moore, BlackRock Head of Thematic Strategy for the Global Allocation Team, expects investors to ride the risk wave heading into the election cycle. Bob Crandall, Former American Airlines CEO, says it will be a long time before the airline industry sees as much business travel as they did pre-Covid-19. Dr. Vivian Lee, Verily Life Sciences President of Health Platforms & Author of "The Long Fix: Solving America's Health Care Crisis with Strategies," says testing asymptomatic people will be a critical component in getting people back to work. Craig Gordon, Bloomberg Washington Bureau Chief, says the current national poll numbers between Joe Biden and President Trump will narrow towards the election.

Kevin Warsh, Former Federal Reserve Governor, says the Fed acted with overwhelming force to shelter the U.S. economy from Covid-19. Richard Haass, CFR President, says American alliances may not survive a two-term Trump presidency. Edward Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodity Research, says supply actions will continue to dominate the oil market. Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives Founder, says the Fed's forecast of 10% unemployment by year's end is not unreasonable. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says the rate of change in equity markets will continue to be positive for the rest of the year. Barry Eichengreen, University of California Berkeley Professor, Barry Eichengreen, University of California Berkeley Professor, discuses “the political scar of epidemics."

Eugene Scalia, U.S. Secretary of Labor, says we are making real headway on the employment picture. Mike Feroli, JPMorgan Chief U.S. Economist, says further stimulus would be insurance against a relapse into more economic weakness. Dr. Peter Hotez, Baylor College of Medicine Dean, says a widely distributed Covid-19 vaccine will not be ready by the end of this year. Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University Public Policy and Economics Professor, says negative interest rates should absolutely still be on the table. Anne Richards, Fidelity International CEO, says dividend cuts by companies are not all permanent, but some will be.