Raboresearch Agri Commodities

In the wake of the USDA’s June Acreage and Stocks Reports, we discuss the likely impacts on G&O and cotton markets given the USDA’s latest estimates. Expectations for acreage gains were high given higher prices during plantings this season, but mixed weather across the US and stiff competition for acres between crops meant those gains were hard to achieve, especially in corn and soybeans. US June grain stocks also declined to a six-year low. With tighter stocks and lower-than-expected aggregate acreage for corn and soybeans, the pressure is on for good yields and good weather this season in the US.

In a bid to reduce food price inflation, the Russian government put in place an export tax on grains & oilseeds in February. What impact will this have on Russian exports to Australia’s key export destinations? Vito Martielli, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst covering Europe, Africa, & the Black Sea, and Dennis Voznesenski, Grains & Oilseeds Analyst in Australia, dive into the details.

Cheryl Kalisch Gordon, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst with Rabobank Australia & New Zealand, is joined by her colleague Lief Chiang, Grains & Oilseeds Analyst based in China, to discuss why the outlook for canola demand in China is flat.

The rise of commodity prices in the last year has been supported by the weakness of the US dollar and increasing inflation expectations. While the US dollar has an obvious link to commodity prices, the inflationary concerns are attracting more funds to commodities as they look for an inflation hedge. Jane Foley, head of FX strategy, joins Carlos Mera, head of Agri Commodity Markets Research, to discuss what's next for FX, inflation, and the economic recovery.

In the latest installment of the RaboResearch Agri Commodities podcast, Stefan Vogel and Michael Magdovitz review the explosive grain & oilseed price dynamics entering the critical weather market. Soy and corn have breached USD 15 and USD 6 per bushel, respectively, amid adverse weather that has left bears coming in from the cold. Join Stefan and Michael as they comprehensively address acreage, yield, stocks, and industry prospects for the year ahead.

Over the last month, tensions in the Black Sea between Ukraine and Russia have boiled over. Troops from both sides have amassed on the border of eastern Ukraine, and now the Russian defense ministry has announced plans for blocking the Kerch Strait, a passageway connecting the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, for foreign war ships and other state ships. What does this mean, and what are the possible implications if escalation continues? Dennis Voznesenski, Grains & Oilseeds analyst, and Michael Every, Global Strategist for Economics and Markets, delve into the details.

The April WASDE was destined to be overshadowed by its two explosive siblings – the March Prospective plantings and the new crop May WASDE. Nevertheless, the April WASDE contained important changes at the margins that help set the stage for broad upside price risks to corn, soy, wheat and cotton moving into the US weather market. Join the ACMR team as they discuss the WASDE report and price prospects for products in the months ahead.

The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report came in far below expectations on corn and soy and heaped pressure on yields, whose weak performance would exacerbate seven-year high scarcity. CBOT G&O bears' expectations for an imminent G&O resupply have likely been dashed. Instead, consumers face growing trepidation ahead of an historic weather market and potential for scarcity to extend well into next year. Join ACMR’s Michael Magdovitz and Andrew Rawlings as they discuss the explosive report and the CBOT price risk factors for the coming months.

Lief Chiang and Oscar Tjakra join to discuss the 2021 outlook for edible oils in China, India, and Southeast Asia.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

After being ravaged by the pandemic, demand recovery expectations coupled with unrelenting Chinese imports led ICE#2 Cotton prices 30% higher than their pre-pandemic levels. Despite a recent sell-off, prices continue to trade at a premium – but how long can this continue? In this podcast, Agri Commodities Market Research and RaboResearch Australia converse on the current global supply and demand situation and the factors that could influence prices in the season ahead. This episode also appears on our sister podcast RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness: Australia & New Zealand The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

Ryan Fitzmaurice, senior commodity strategist, joins Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities market research, to discuss speculation in commodities markets. Funds have reached some extreme positions in both energy and agriculture, and Rabobank analysts do not expect this to stop, as persistently low interest rates and inflation concerns continue to lead funds to invest more into commodities.     The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

The 2020 bull run in agri commodities defied all expectations and proved immune to Covid-19’s economic and social consequences. This is particularly true for grains and oilseeds. The engines driving this rally are expected to continue into 2021: weather, speculators, and good import demand. However, when it comes to softs, we see prices still suffering from good production and precarious demand.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

The 2020 bull run in agri commodities defied all expectations and proved immune to Covid-19’s economic and social consequences. This is particularly true for grains and oilseeds. The engines driving this rally are expected to continue into 2021: weather, speculators, and good import demand. However, when it comes to softs, we see prices still suffering from good production and precarious demand.     The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

The prospect of children coughing at your door may be scary enough at the moment, but there is also a lot of fear in agri commodity markets. In this special edition podcast, we explore some of the worst-case scenarios that could lead to higher prices for wheat, cocoa, and sugar markets. This Halloween may not see many treats, but there could be plenty of tricks.     The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

Vegetable prices surged near YTD highs last month, buoyed by strong demand and lower production. Join Rabobank’s Oscar Tjakra and Michael Magdovitz as they analyze MDE Palm Oil and CBOT Soy Oil supply & demand fundamentals and the price risks ahead. Can the Q3 2020 momentum be sustained? Will slowing demand and stronger supply prospects cool the rally? Michael and Oscar discuss these points and their price outlooks on the podcast.     The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

Carlos Mera joins Charlie Clack to address the growing presence of speculative activity in soft commodity markets – including sugar – and the reasons why. The duo look at how this – along with the fundamental outlook – is set to drive the sugar price.     The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

Charlie Clack joins Oscar Tjakra to talk opportunities in global cotton over the next decade, following our latest RaboResearch report. On the agenda this episode is the post-pandemic demand recovery, world consumption growth to 2029/30, and opportunities for cotton producers and exporters around the globe.     The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

In this G&O market update we cover the main drivers leading price moves across Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets. The weather has begun to show a greater influence on G&O markets in recent weeks as corn and spring wheat crops move through key development stages. At the time of writing, CBOT Corn prices have eased after an initial rally following lower than expected US stocks and planted acreage and misplaced expectations of threatening weather in the Midwest. Meanwhile, CBOT Wheat prices have rallied as Russian winter wheat yields come in lower-than-expected and hot weather in the forecast is putting spring wheat crops at risk. CBOT Soybeans has mostly followed corn in recent weeks but as soybeans begin their key development stages, weather and Chinese export demand will be key. The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

While the supply side is not without concerns, demand has been dropping due to Covid-19. For now, harvests are going ahead more or less normally in top producer Brazil and also in Colombia. We expect global demand to drop by 0.8% YOY, the first drop in global coffee demand since 1995. The precariousness of demand in certain coffee markets continues to be the focus of attention, particularly in markets where people are used to drinking tea at home and in markets with increasing unemployment but low benefits.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

Brent Crude recovered over 30% so far in May, pushing vegetable oil prices higher. Soy and corn remained subdued in the midst of an abundance of US stocks, good weather, and rapidly progressing US plantings. In particular for soybeans, the pace of Brazilian shipments continues to surprise, with the volumes of US soybeans bought by China a little lackluster in the middle of the worsening rhetoric. The rather positive USDA expectations for US 2020/21 soybean exports will require a strong commitment from China, but reading the Twitter feed offers no assurances about this. Good European and Black Sea weather in the forecast is stabilizing the prospects for wheat production, but there is still a long way to go before the situation improves.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.