Raboresearch Agri Commodities

April witnessed unprecedented weakness in the energy sector and in emerging market currencies. Agri commodities markets were infected by these factors and continued their downward trend. Meanwhile, the threat of supply chains disruptions largely eased, as agricultural activities avoided major port and border closures, and the price risks shifted to demand destruction. Looking ahead, the spring plantings in the US are proceeding well but have the potential to bring volatility.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

Join the ACMR team as they discuss the wild ag commodity price swings amid market concerns for demand destruction and supply chain stability. For energy-related products like sugar, soy oil, palm oil, and corn, the energy price declines – resulting from Covid-19 and the internecine OPEC price war – are expected to cause substantial demand destruction for biodiesel and ethanol. For vital food and feed products like wheat, coffee, and soymeal, stockpiling and supply chain concerns are driving unusual strong backwardation.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

China G&O analyst Lief Chiang and ACMR analyst Michael Magdovitz discuss the spread of coronavirus and the threat it poses to already fragile Chinese and global feed demand. Lief and Michael then consider the implications of coronavirus on China’s 'phase-one' trade deal compliance, US summer plantings, and CBOT Corn and Soybean prices through 2020.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

Brexit is anticipated to have far-reaching impacts around the world, with many industries – including sugar – feeling the effects. Charlie Clack and Maria Afonso join forces to see if Brexit could, however, also translate into opportunities for the world’s major sugar exporters. This podcast episode also appears on our sister podcast RaboResearch F&A Australia/New Zealand   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.  

Sugar prices have gained ground in 2020, owing to a catalogue of reasons including speculative buying and global supply and demand. Carlos Mera joins Charlie Clack to outline the reasons, risks, and outlook for the year ahead.   This episode also appears on our RaboResearch F&A Australia & New Zealand sister podcast   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

What does 'phase one' mean for US agriculture? Is it a return to normal, or is the old normal gone for good? RaboResearch grain & oilseed analysts Erin FitzPatrick and Steve Nicholson talk through some possibilities with Andrew Tasker from Rabobank's Markets team.   This episode originally appeared on our RaboResearch F&A North America sister podcast   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

Arabica coffee prices rallied 40% in the last two months on the back of a frantic speculative rally. This is in sharp contrast to the low-price trend seen over the last two years, in which coffee prices traded below cost of production. Commodity analysts Carlos Mera and Andrew Rawlings discuss the reasons for the rally and where it may lead.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

The vegetable oil complex has enjoyed strong price increases in 2019. In this ACMR podcast episode, grain & oilseed analysts Oscar Tjakra and Michael Magdovitz review vegetable oil market fundamentals and price catalysts for CBOT Soy Oil, MDE Palm Oil, and Matif Rapeseed. Listen in as Oscar and Michael share Rabobank’s price outlook for vegetable oils in 2020.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

Rabobank’s Global G&O Strategist, Stefan Vogel, joins Australian-based Senior G&O Analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon to talk grains. They discuss where we expect upside in a market burdened by supply and trade war troubles, what might undermine that upside, and what this means in the context of Australia’s 2019/20, again, drought-affected grain harvest. This episode also appeared on our sister podcast RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness Australia/New Zealand   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.  

In this joint Rabobank ACMR & FAR Australia podcast, South-East Asia Sugar expert Charles Clack joins ACMR senior analyst Carlos Mera to discuss the outlook for sugar prices. While the current glut in the market is manifested in heavy deliveries of both raws and whites, the market is turning towards a global deficit in 2019/20. The drop in estimates for the 2019/20 crops in Thailand, India and the EU stands in sharp contrast to the record net short position held on London #5 (whites) futures contracts, which will likely lead to higher volatility ahead.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

Two months after publishing a planting intentions report that was viewed as overstating US Corn acreage, the USDA completed a second survey that confirmed its initial findings, increased yields, and left the market shocked and deflated. Join Rabobank’s Agri Commodities Markets Research Team as they discuss the latest WASDE report results, and their wider significance across grain & oilseeds markets for the year ahead. The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

In this joint Rabobank ACMR & FAR Asia podcast, G&O expert Lief Chiang joins ACMR analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss his outlook for China’s soymeal and feed usage through 2020. In 2019, African Swine Fever-related culling of up to 50% of China’s hog herd, with further downside possible, will reduce soybean imports and meal usage year-on-year. Reductions will be muted and short-lived, however, relative to hog and feed usage losses, thanks to a combination of higher feed inclusion rates of low-cost (relative to alternative meals) soymeal, increased demand from poultry and aquaculture, and others. By 2020, Lief expects soybean imports to resume a modest growth, even without a US-China trade deal, although import volumes will remain below their historic highs. The podcast concludes with a supply-side review of corn and soybeans, with Michael providing a review of Rabobank’s 2019/20 US production estimates and a view on whether the crop could see supply-side reductions sufficient to offset the demand we

A month of persistent rain across the Midwest kept corn farmers out of the fields and forced the USDA to do an about-face on their heavy 2019/20 balance sheet projections, cutting carry-out by 810m bu, the largest monthly decline in 30 years. With wet weather in the forecast, additional production downgrades are possible – for corn and soybeans. In this week’s ACMR podcast episode, G&O analyst Michael Magdovitz talks to ACMR head and G&O global strategist Stefan Vogel about the June WASDE changes, along with the risks ahead for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Join Michael and Stefan as they evaluate the potential weather premium relative to global grain & oilseed availability, and hear their price risk bias going forward.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

Join Stefan Vogel, head of ACMR and global G&O strategist, as he comments on the excessive rainfall across the US, which caused an impressive price rally of over 20% in CBOT Corn and Wheat. While rains delays US corn plantings and will likely result in an unprecedented record number of unplanted acres, US wheat quality is at risk.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

On 1 January 2020, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) will implement a 0.5% global sulphur cap for marine fuels. With less than a year to go, there are still uncertainties about the global availability of low sulphur marine fuels needed to fulfil this regulation. This regulation is implemented for the marine industry but also impacts the grains and oilseed industry. Oscar Tjakra joins Charlie Clack to chat about the impact of the regulation on the grains and oilseeds value chain and what industry participants can do about it.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

Brazil has rapidly risen to become one of the world’s largest cotton production and export regions. Victor Ikeda joins Charlie Clack from São Paulo to chat about the rise of the cotton industry there... and what this could mean for Australia going forward. This episode appeared earlier on our Australia/New Zealand sister channel   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

From early November until last week, CBOT markets enjoyed a US-China trade war hiatus as China initiated goodwill purchases of US agricultural goods, the US withheld tariff hikes, and both sides sought a negotiated settlement. ACMR analyst Michael Magdovitz and G&O analyst Lief Chiang discuss how that calm was shattered by Sunday's statement from President Trump to raise tariffs on Chinese goods. Join Michael and Lief to hear about the near-term impacts and price risks from this latest trade war escalation.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

ACMR Head and G&O Sector Strategist Stefan Vogel joins ACMR Analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss the recent price breaks in wheat, corn, and soybeans, along with some thoughts ahead of the USDA’s first 2019/20 WASDE in early May. Stefan and Michael discuss bearish G&O catalysts, including fierce export competition, the African swine fever epidemic, generally positive global crop conditions, and a record non-commercial net short.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

Arabica coffee prices are at 13-year lows. At only USc 90/lb, arabica prices are now below cost of production in virtually all arabica-producing countries aside from Brazil – and over 10m coffee farmers will be working themselves into poverty. Senior Commodity Analyst Carlos Mera talks about his supply/demand expectations, the fundamental risks surrounding the coffee market, and what can be done to alleviate the situation.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.

In the latest episode of the ACMR podcast, China G&O expert Lief Chiang joins ACMR Analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss China’s potential F&A shopping list under a trade deal. Amid reports that China has offered to more than double its pre-trade-war purchases to 55bn USD, Lief runs through the products besides soybeans that would strategically benefit China, including corn ethanol to achieve the E10 mandate, pork, beef, seafood, and spring wheat. He also discusses the time span for reaching those purchase levels. The podcast concludes with Michael's view on whether the US could supply an additional 30bn USD in F&A goods and the potential impact of such an increase for US farmers.   The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.