Sharkey, Howes & Javer

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor, debt and where the strain is starting to show. The U.S. debt levels are trending lower after recent infusions during the pandemic and reaching pre Covid levels relative to GDP. Should debt levels be a top priority? Unemployment continues to stay in the 3% range. Will unemployment claims increase with a changing marketplace? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Core PCE Inflation under 3% • ISM Manufacturing index nearing 50 • 4th Quarter U.S. GDP grew at a 3.3% annual rate

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to evaluate the flood of new data. Inflation is still trending lower, and the job market continues to be close to full employment. Will the Fed engineer a soft landing? Mortgage rates are also trending lower; however, housing inventory remains at all-time lows. When will things change? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Oil prices back near $75 a barrel • Mortgage rates hovering around 6.5% • 10-year above 4%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we talk about some important economic data. GDP estimates continue to be above trend and unemployment remains low. However, the Fed seems to be content with inflation data trending lower and many are speculating on future rate cuts. How will this impact the stock and bond market in 2024? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Oil prices drop below $70/barrel • Mortgage rates trending below 7% • Headline inflation trends lower

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor and financial headwinds. Jobless claims and unemployment remain relatively stable, but how has the labor market changed since 2020 and where will the labor market go from here? Inflation continues to soften, yet as we look to 2024 where do we see potential headwinds to the economy? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • 30-year mortgage down to 7% • Oil hovers around $75 • Unemployment rate at 3.7%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a variety of economic news. The Fed has one more meeting to round out 2023. All eyes will be on if they continue to hold rates and the impact on unemployment and inflation. In other news, the housing market experienced the lowest number of existing home sales in more than a decade. Will housing prices continue to be resilient in the higher rate environment? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Oil prices steady around $75 a barrel • Mortgage rates stuck in the mid 7%’s • Headline inflation trends lower

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor and interest rates. With jobless claims and unemployment remaining relatively stable, how have hourly earnings changed since the pandemic and what does this mean for the labor market as we look ahead? As interest rates have risen from previous multi year lows, what does a higher interest rate environment look like for housing, commercial real estate, and U.S. loans? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Oil touches $80 • Unemployment rate at 3.9% • 30-year mortgages above 7.5%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss an array of economic news. Consumer spending is still strong and retail sales continue to climb. Even as the Fed raises rates, the housing market has stayed strong, and unemployment remains low. What, if anything, will begin to slow or influence the Fed to lower rates? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Bond yields continue to rise • Oil prices rise again • Mortgage rates approach 8%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss some economic hurdles in the system, as well as the budget deficit. Savings rates and new mortgage applications have dropped below pre-pandemic levels, along with an increasing office vacancy rate. What does this mean for the economy as we move into the 4th quarter? The budget deficit has been a main theme this year, but what are the specifics of where the government collects its revenue, current federal spending, and the US budget as a share of GDP? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Core CPI inflation at 4.1 • Oil below $90 • Unemployment rate hovering at 3.8 • 30-year mortgages above 7.5%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at consumer savings & globalization. Despite strong consumer demand and student loan payments starting back up, household savings remain at pre-pandemic highs. With an everchanging global economy, the US has diversified imports away from China and continues to increase industrial robots when it comes to domestic manufacturing. What does this mean as we look to the future? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Core PCE inflation comes in at 3.9 • Oil stays above $90 • Unemployment rate hovering at 3.8 • 30-year mortgages above 7.3%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we address new economic data. CPI jumped month over month, largely due to the increase in oil prices. How will this impact the Fed’s decisions for the rest of 2023? Overall, the economy is moving along, due to a strong consumer. Will the restart of student loan payments change this? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Bond yields continue to tick up. • Oil prices climb above $90 a barrel. • Mortgage rates elevated above 7%.

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at wages and housing. Wage and salary growth has moved back to pre-pandemic levels, with the highest income households seeing the slowest growth, alongside declining job openings numbers. With virtually all rent measures currently on the rise, home prices have also continued to rise despite the recent increase in mortgage rates. Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Headline inflation hovers around 3 • Oil back above $80 • Unemployment rate at 3.8 • 30 year mortgages above 7.15%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to wade through the summer doldrums. The consumer is still spending and enjoying historically elevated home equity values. As the Fed continues to raise rates, yields across the board also rise. Mortgages continue to climb, and longer-term treasury yields slip higher. How long until inflation and the cost of money normalize? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Bond yields continue to rise. • Oil prices slide below $80 per barrel. • Mortgage rates inched up above 7%.

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss some key data pieces. From a year ago, inflation has trended lower, unemployment has stayed the same, and treasury yields continue to climb. The Fed is continuing to raise rates as they receive traditionally conflicting data. Is inflation under control and how high do they need to go with the cost of money? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Bond yields continue to rise. • Oil is around $80 per barrel. • Mortgage rates inched up to 6.9%.

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at the lending market, housing, the Federal Reserve, and other economic data. Lending data is showing delinquencies at record lows, as we prepare for student loan payments to start back up in September. Industrial production in the US has remained high, and with a potential Fed increase of 0.25% in rates and federal outlays outpacing revenues, what does that mean for the economy as we move further into the third quarter? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Headline inflation hits 3 • Oil moves above $75 • Unemployment rate hovers around 3.6

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at unemployment and personal savings. Unemployment has continued to be a driver for the Fed decisions and after recently ticking back up, the unemployment rate has begun to slide down. What is causing such a robust employment market? With inflation on its slow decline, we are starting to see personal savings begin to move upward. How does the housing and rental market play a role in this going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Q1 GDP revised up to 2 • 2-year bond approaches 5% • Oil moves back above $70 • Mortgage rates cross over 6.8%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to look for meaningful changes in the economic data. CPI numbers continue to trend lower as energy and food continue to normalize. Student debt payments have garnered people’s attention as payments could come back online after August. How will this impact inflation? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Bond yields stable • Oil drops to $69 per barrel • Mortgage rates inch up to 6.7%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at several pieces of economic data, including inflation and housing. Inflation continues its slow decline and approaches the Fed Funds target rate, but is it enough to sway the Fed to pause at their upcoming meeting? Median home prices have started ticking upward, mortgage delinquencies are at record lows, and new mortgages are around 6.7%. Has the worst in the housing market passed? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Unemployment increases to 3.7% • 2-year bond over 4.5% • Oil hovers around $70 a barrel • Mortgage rates above 6.7%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at an array of economic data, most of it showing signs of a decently healthy economy. The Fed continues to fight inflation with a 0.25% increase next month still on the table. The debt ceiling debate seems to have a resolution as a deal is being finalized. Where will inflation and the Fed’s policy take us into the summer months and end of the year? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Bond yields on the rise • Oil around $74 per barrel • Mortgage rates around 6.5%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at inflation, consumer spending, jobs, and other economic data. With a decline in consumer spending, inflation continues to lower after the most recent 0.25% increase from the FED. Job openings have decreased across a majority of industries, and with the housing market seeing low purchase and refinance activity, where do we see the job and housing market going as we move further into the second quarter? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • 2-year bond drops below 4% • Oil drops to $70 a barrel • Mortgage rates remain above 6.25%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at income, housing and other economic data. ISM manufacturing data ticked up a bit, while GDP estimates for Q1 came in lower. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates 0.25% this month as inflation numbers continue to stay above 5%. What will it take to fight inflation and avoid a recession? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • 3-month T-Bill above 5% • Oil drops to below $75 per barrel • Mortgage rates still above 6.25%