Sharkey, Howes & Javer

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a look at the consumer and financial stress in the system. Headline inflation came down year over year in the month of March. Many of the supply side contributors seem to be returning to pre-pandemic levels, however the consumer seems to be staying strong. How will this impact the Fed’s decision making for the rest of the year? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • 2-year Treasury around 4% • Oil on the rise to about $83 per barrel • Mortgage rates still above 6.25%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss banking and inflation. Money market funds have seen large inflows over the past 2 months following the issues in the banking industry, but with the Fed’s balance sheet growing as well, what does this mean for the economy going forward? Inflation continues to soften with lower rents and supply chain procedures getting back to pre-pandemic levels. Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Q4 2022 GDP estimate 2.6% • Oil prices bump over $80 • Unemployment remains at 3.6%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the headline news of two bank failures as well as other economic data. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was taken into conservatorship by the regulators and forced the FDIC and Fed to act. How will this impact monetary policy in the coming months? Unemployment was mixed and other data points to inflation continuing to trend downward in the right direction. Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • 2-year Treasury falls to around 4% • Unemployment up at 3.6% • Mortgage rates still around 6.6%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer and inflation. Over the past 2 years we have seen household savings decrease and shelter prices increase, yet we have seen historical wage growth and strong consumer spending. As the Federal Reserve continues its fight against inflation, what does that mean for the consumer and prices as we move further into 2023? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Q4 2022 GDP estimate 2.7% • Unemployment remains at 3.4% • Mortgages bump up to 6.6%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss important economic data. Inflation is trending lower, however it’s uncertain what it will take to achieve the Fed’s 2% target. The housing market continues to soften, and corporate earnings are projected to be lower for 2023. State governments seem to have plenty of funding. Tune in to find out more! Key Takeaways: • 2-year treasury yield climbs higher above 4.5% • 30-year mortgages move to 6.32% • Oil drops to around $76 per barrel

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss jobs and the Federal Reserve. Jobless claims continue to decrease and unemployment remains at record lows. With a slowing economy, what will that mean for employment for 2023? The Federal Reserve continues to raise rates with their most recent 0.25% increase in January. Will the data soften enough in 2023 to cause them to pause, or will they continue to raise rates? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Headline inflation lowers to 6.5 • Unemployment down to 3.4 • Mortgages hover around 6%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss important economic data. The labor market remains strong even as the Fed raises rates. The housing market continues to soften and corporate earnings per share are projected to be lower for 2023. Will we see a recession this year? Tune in to find out more! Key Takeaways: • 2-year treasury yield remains above 4% • 30-year mortgages move under 7% • Oil drops to around $80 per barrel

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the Federal Reserve. With inflation beginning to soften, and a Federal Reserve meeting upcoming in late January, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve to see what they do next. Will softening data in the housing, labor, and services market be enough to relax the FED, or will they continue to be aggressive with interest rates as they start the new year? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • 2022 Q3 GDP adjusted higher • Unemployment down to 3.5 • Mortgages get back to 6.5%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the economic health of the consumer and corporations. For the consumer, hourly wages have leveled off and personal savings have decreased. Housing continues to be a sticking point for the consumer with the house-price index coming down and home equity withdrawal on the rise. Corporations on the other hand show strong profit margins despite sticky inflation, but what does that look like for 2023? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Oil drops to low $70s • 3rd Quarter GDP revised up to 2.9 • Mortgage rates under 6.5%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer spending and the progress in the inflation battle. Inflation data, represented by the CPI index, has trended down. However, unemployment remains low lending it’s way to sustained strength in consumer spending. Will the conflicting data keep the Federal Reserve on their rate hike campaign, or will they slow down going into 2023? Tune in to find out more! Key Takeaways: • 2-year treasury yield remains above 4% • 30-year mortgages move under 7% • Oil drops to around $80 per barrel

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the U.S. economy and the stock market. With the most recent year over year inflation number coming in lower than expected, what does that mean for the U.S. economy moving forward and will inflation continue to soften as we move into 2023? The stock market has shown some life over the past 2 weeks, but how do the Mid Term elections and a strong dollar fit into the equation? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Oil hits $88 a barrel • Unemployment ticks up slightly • New mortgage rates above 7

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at U.S. consumer, corporate and government data. Consumers have more in their checking and savings then they did pre pandemic. Inflation seems to be impacting some ways in which we spend but the aggregate remains up. Corporate profit margins remain elevated. Will the estimates continue to trend up into 2023? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • 2-year treasury yield is above 4% • 30-year mortgages are above 7% • The federal deficit contracts from 2020 and 2021

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the Federal Reserve & housing. With the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in early November, the economy and the consumer are waiting to see where interest rates go. Will it be enough to dampen inflation as we move closer to 2023? The housing market continues to soften with mortgage rates above 7% and new loan applications at pre-pandemic lows. Why have prices remained steady and what does that mean for the housing market going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Oil is back above $85 per barrel • Jobless claims remain at lows • Outstanding consumer credit is on the rise • Manufacturing remains strong

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a thorough look at the data. Treasury yields have continued to rise as the Federal Reserve maintains their mandate to break inflation and stabilize prices. The consumer is still spending, and the job market continues to remain strong. Where will the cost of money be at the end of the year? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • 2-year treasury yield is above 4% • 30-year mortgages are closing in on 7% • Oil continues to decline, down almost 40% YTD

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer & the U.S. economy. With inventory levels on the rise, the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates, and gas prices moving back down, the U.S. consumer is hoping for inflation to cool as we move into the end of the year. With many saying that the U.S. Economy is heading for a recession, what does that actually mean for the stock market and what can we learn from the past? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Oil drops below $90 • 30-year mortgage rates above 6% • Natural gas prices continue to rise • Mortgage delinquencies & foreclosures at all-time lows

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss jobs and housing. Layoffs and initial jobless claims remain at low levels, along with increases in the labor participation rate. Mortgage payments as a percentage of income have jumped as we continue to see mortgage rates increase and home prices adjust down, but how is this different from what we saw in 2008? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Jobless claims hold steady • Corporate profit margins on solid footing • Mortgages approaching 6% • Consumer spending starting to slow

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation & housing. The Consumer Price Index shows us that inflation may have hit its peak, but goods and services spending remain strong and the Fed continues to show its willingness to raise rates to try to tame inflation. The supply of homes in the U.S. has risen as new loan applications fall with the increase in mortgage rates, but what does that mean for the housing market going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • US industrial production continues to rise • Used car market weakens • Oil hovering around $90 • Mortgage rates back up above 5%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer debt & real estate. Consumer debt continues to rise alongside a decline in the personal saving rate to pre-pandemic levels. Home prices have started to come down as mortgage rates rise above 5%, but what does this mean for new home buyers and the economy moving forward? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • S&P 500 estimated earnings remain strong • Unemployment numbers shift lower • Oil back down to $90 • Major indices trend up in July

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we will dive a little deeper into June’s headline vs core inflation numbers. As oil drops below $100/barrel, will that signal the peak of inflation? In the housing market, loan applications decline to a level we haven’t seen in over two decades. Where will mortgage rates end up? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • 10-year treasury yield is around 2.9% • 30-year mortgages are closing in on 6% • Jobless claims tick up

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer prices and potential recession. As inflation continues to remain high, we are seeing increased gas & food prices but also lower logistics costs & home prices. What does that mean for our wallets in the coming months? There has been talk of recession, but what does that mean for the consumer and are there any surprises in the economy moving forward? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • S&P 500 forecasted earnings remain strong • Oil back below $100 • U.S. Dollar continues to strengthen • New U.S. manufacturing construction hits new highs