Andrew Dickens Afternoons

So if you've listened to me for any length of time, you'll know I respect Liam Dann very much indeed. Liam is the Herald's Business Editor at Large. He hosts podcasts and writes stories about the business world and he's been at the NZ Herald for 21 years. He's at pains to stress he's not an economist. He's the guy who interviews economists and then translates their technical stuff into news we can all use and we need. He's just written a book called Barbecue Economics, which explains all this stuff for the average man and woman on the street. He also writes a column every Sunday, and yesterday he asked the question I've been asking myself for a long time. "Is the Government’s shock about this 'worse than expected' economy political theatre or just ignorance?" Last August, Nicola Willis stated the cupboard was bare, and we all knew that. They then campaigned on fixing it all up. Killing inflation. Solving the cost of living crisis. Building the missing infrastructure. And then on top of it all, giving up on $1

When National formed it's new government there was a snappy little phrase that supporters were fond of using. Thank God the adults are back in charge. Suggesting that the left wing Labour Government were naive, inefficient fools who had driven the country into the ground like a 12 year old in a ram raid. National would lead a government run by grown ups who know what to do and how to do it and then actually DO it. So when Christopher Luxon presented his State of the nation address yesterday, the expectation was that the grown ups were about to tell us how all our problems will be fixed. What we got was a warning that times were going to get tough. What we got was a promise that our PM would not shy away from tough talk.  What we got was a lot of talk about beneficiaries. They were told the free ride was over. And then at the end an admission to reporters that the Government was yet to explain how it would address and finance the solutions to our woes. We also got a lot of talk about how bad the last Governmen

So two big video interviews over the weekend. Firstly, Tucker Carlson interviewed Vladimir Putin. Tucker said it was because no-one but him had bothered to ask which is BS. There's always people in the media claiming they're the only people holding power to account. My feel is that Putin knew Tucker was desperate for the scoop following his embarrassing downfall at Fox, so obliged him as a useful idiot. But that's not to denigrate the appearance. It was great to watch and listen to Putin. Know your enemy, they say, but you can't if no-one lets you hear them. The interview was reported 2 ways. Either Putin keen for World War 3 or Putin keen to negotiate for peace. He alluded to both things but what I took as more chilling was his half hour history lesson on the Russian/Ukraine situation. It went back centuries. It showed his depth of feeling. Māori would understand, having such long held historical grievance. It's a depth that means he's not pulling out or pulling back. In fact, his keenness for peace negotiat

So there was a little bit of excitement yesterday as Jack Tame caught the National Party spreading misinformation on Q+A. Chris Bishop was talking about dropping smokefree legislation and made the claim that there would only be one outlet in all of Northland. Tame had done his research and said there was more likely going to be 35, which resulted in a classic caught out face from Chis Bishop, who stuck to his line and said he understood there was only going to be 1. Unfortunately, Jack never asked him where that understanding came from. It came from the Prime Minister, who made the same claim earlier in the week. It was not questioned then, but there was more than enough time for the media to research it and wait for someone to use it again publicly. Which Bishop did and walked into a "gotcha" trap. Now you've got opponents of the Government jumping up and down going on about the lying Government. Which is a wild over-exaggeration. The factoid was not crucial to their argument about black market trade and gan

Congratulations to the new coalition Government, which was sworn in today by Governor General Dame Cindy Kiro. And as our new Prime Minister says- they're ready to get stuck in. But things are already getting better. Some say it's just because of the vibe. But don't discount plain good luck and timing. The so-called hermit kingdom is over. As we heard a week ago, nearly a quarter of a million people chose to emigrate to New Zealand in the past year. Today we learn tourism is up- and spending in the year to September hit $30 billion dollars. That's up $6.6 billion on the previous year - and pretty much back to pre-Covid levels. This while the international spend is still recovering. As Nicola Willis finally gets her warrant to fool with the economy, the economy appears to be turning a corner. In today's paper is a report that economists believe the Reserve Bank will not be raising interest rates anytime soon. It also reports that markets are predicting a rate cut as early as May and as many as 3 cuts through 2

So, still no Government. It's not a biggie. Remember, they only started talking after the specials were counted so it's only been a fortnight. But then again, why did they only start talking after the specials were counted? But still not a biggie.  Meanwhile, all those getting stuck into Winston are not using their knowledge of history or politics.  He doesn't have to be in Government. He can say no easily and then bring the Government down whenever he wants. Yes, he's the tail and National's the dog but the dog needs Winston's tail far more than Winston needs the dog.  And when it comes to the difficulties of the negotiation, many seem to forget that Winston is an old-fashioned anti-globalist who hates immigration and the stress it puts on our infrastructure.  They seem not to remember that it was Winston's idea to slap a foreign buyers ban in our property market. And he was part of the team that did in 2017.  But letting foreign buyers back in is at the centre of National's tax plan.  So they're asking New

This is my first ZB shift since the election brought in our new Government-to-be. And I must say it’s been the most fantastic fortnight, until we lost the Rugby World Cup final due to first half sloppiness and a trigger-happy TMO. But we had our chances. We can’t complain. You have to play to the rules. But really, it’s been 2 weeks of calm and confidence and a feeling of recovery and renewal after the election Business Confidence went from a number in the 20s to a number in the 50s overnight. Inflation came in in the 5s, despite most expectations being half a percent higher. Credit agencies said we’re in ok shape and didn’t make our borrowing more expensive. New Zealand came in 4th in a global tax competitiveness survey. The real estate section in the paper suddenly doubled in size. Real estate agents starting calling telling me to invest now, because the property market is about to explode. I even felt that crime has stopped. Just like that. Until I checked and saw there has been a ram raid. In Waihi Beach

So the political party that didn’t know what it stood for anymore and offered no real future lost the election to the party that offered tax cuts that are affordable only by increasing taxes on the wealthy and then claim that we’re back on track.  I’d argue that New Zealand is confused.  How else can you explain a nation that just 3 years ago so gratefully gave a red tide to Labour and now switches to a blue tsunami after a thousand days?  I think the theme of the election is more that it was time for a change than getting back on track.    It’s been an horrific four years of pandemics, cyclones, floods, fires. On top of that some ineptitude as Labour gave us slogans rather than policies. Exactly what they criticise National for.  It was decades worth of angst in just six years so we changed the one thing we could.  So National get their turn.  But the wholesale switcheroos we’ve seen in the past two elections are not a good thing for the country.  When Labour took an outright majority in 2020 we lost some of

Well, here we are. Finally in the last week of an election campaign between the most incompetent cohort of politicians seen in a long time and wouldn't you know it, an international geo-political crisis just to accentuate that statement. Obviously, Nanaia Mahuta sympathises with Palestinians. She feels they've been colonised the same way Maori were. That doesn't make her an anti-Semite. BUT- you must condemn a surprise raid on civilians that killed thousands. She didn't, while the rest of the world did. So it was left to Chris Hipkins to do the right thing. Isn't that just like Labour. The few competent people trying to tidy up after the incompetent after yet another cock up. So why do I think this is the most incompetent cohort of politicians? They all blow in the breeze and will say anything to get the job. It started when Hipkins got the big job and started the bonfire of the policies, leaving me to ask whether he stood for anything at all. Since then, he's announced more and more spending despite advice t

I want to start the show with tributes to 3 people. The first is Brooke Graham. My neighbour and friend from the Coromandel who died recently at the age of just 42 from brain cancer.  A fast death inside 9 weeks but slow enough for her to make plans for her 10 year old daughter and her husband. Hers was a death of great grace and I am immensely sad. So to Carrick and MacKenzie, here's to your amazing wife and mother. Then there's Simon Barnett and his support of his wife, Jodi over the past 6 years in her fight against brain cancer as well. This was featured in the Weekend Herald on Saturday. Of course all of us here have on the afternoon show have known what Simon and his family have been going through. His strength, courage and love while still working this demanding job is amazing. It's good that you now know. And finally I want to acknowledge Richie Poulton, the director of the Dunedin study who passed away yesterday at the age of 61, again of cancer. Richie and I were at Auckland Grammar together. In the

What a funny old week it's been listening to the media and the Government howling for National's costings on their foreign house buyers tax and National's refusal to release them. Personally I don't give a flying fig on the costings. It seems perfectly obvious that National will not raise the money it says it will because that would take a record level of overseas sales. And National doesn't care. The overseas buyers tax is a sideshow. They are committed to tax cuts. That's their thing. That's non negotiable. They will happen. So if they can't subsidise the cuts with the new tax what could they do?  Either borrow more or cut Government spending. Cutting services will make their coalition partner happier, so what do you think will happen? The overseas buyers tax seems like a strange one for a so called right wing neo-liberal globalist party to propose. One that says it's committed to fighting inflation. In essence it's a wealth tax. "You can afford a $2 million dollar house. Great we'll have another $300,000 b

What a wild and woolly weekend on the hustings. Christopher Luxon turns up on Q&A to talk about National's policies. First up, he promises to close Rotorua's emergency housing motels and kick any troublesome Kainga Ora social housing tenants out. Obviously, this is great news for law abiding Rotorua residents and New Zealanders suffering from the neighbours from hell. But he forgot that people ask follow up questions. Like, so where do you put these people? To which he has no answer. This is not good.  Don't take my word for it. Avowed right winger Ashley Church was on Early Edition said this went too far. The State is the landlord of last resort, blah blah blah blah. The social housing and the motels were a bad answer to a bad problem.  Get rid of them and all you have is a badder problem getting worse. And if you think feral's behaviours are bad in a state house you wait until they live in a car. Luxon offered nothing. Then he said their housing policies would provide downward pressure on rents. Of cour

So we're off and running with an election 40-odd days away and both parties promising the world. Labour is out of the gate with their policy of free dental care for the under 30s. A policy they, themselves, said was unachievable just a month ago. A policy that needs more dentists, but we only train 60 a year and it takes 6 years for them to be in the workforce. Everything is against this policy and Labour knows it, which is why they won't even try to do it until 2026, and only if they get back in. It's almost as if Labour doesn't get what's driven the electorate off them over the past 3 years. Pie in the sky word salads that are barely possible if not impossible. They were given an incredible mandate just to repair what pandemic lockdowns did to us but instead, they started chasing unicorns. My pet peeve is the Light Rail that might bother some shop owners, so they thought- let's just stick it underground at eye-watering cost. And you want us to take you seriously. To win, National just needs to seem capable

So last week we lost Sir Michael Parkinson, the great interviewer. His son interviewed in the weekend saying his father was proud of his working-class roots but hated politics. While he hated politics but loved policy. He thought most of politics was just an act, but policies are actions.  I thought about that watching the corny play that was acted out over the weekend. Hipkins ruled out Peters even though Peters had ruled out Hipkins ages ago. Then Dunne says great politics and that it snookers Luxon, but Luxon comes back and says he's not thinking about Peters at all.  Honestly. So much hot air over almost nothing.  Then Chippy calls National, ACT, New Zealand First a coalition of cuts, chaos, and confusion.  Virtually the same thing that Luxon has been saying all year. Could you be any more insipid?  I said last week that I fail to comprehend what Chris Hipkins actually stands for anymore, and there's more proof.  Then we have Paul Henry in the paper on Sunday. John Key's bestie and former National party c

So the World Cup has finished it' stellar month downunder with a victory for Spain. Who, I hope, took the time to thank Palmerston North for the city's contribution towards their success.  After all one would presume that if the team was so bored with the Palmie nightlife then they'd be getting good sleep and spending plenty of time practicing and improving their game during the day. And that is the magic of this World Cup. That New Zealand was so significantly and visibly involved. We hosted half the draw in a tournament whose ratings far exceeded anything we've hosted before. Bigger than a Rugby World Cup, bigger than the America's Cup, bigger than a Commonwealth Games. 2 billion pairs of eyes watched us. Despite what negative columnists wrote about our domestic problems being visible to the world I can assure you that was not the case. We looked great. And if a fraction of those people decide to visit us in the future that's a win. The monetary benefit is still to be calculated but it's fair to say the who

So Chris Hipkins’ big roll of the dice has happened. Two months out from the election. 61 days if you're counting GST comes off fruit and veg, Working For Families gets even more money and higher thresholds. It's a 2 billion dollar giveaway for poor vegetarians and breeders. The rest of the poor are left out. And this is it. The economic situation, both local and global, preclude any more big spend ups. We've heard Grant Robertson say that. But we've also heard Grant Robertson say many other things only to be guzumped by political expediency, so who knows? So will this do the trick? I don't think so. Nicola Willis got the GST debate out early stealing its power. Meanwhile, the increase in In Work Tax Credits and Working For Families cash is being largely ignored as it benefits only 160,000 families. Still a big number but not big enough. There's a lot of other poor people getting nothing And it's very hard to vote for Labour in 2023 after their six years in power, for two main reasons. I'm reading a book by D

Infrastructure is hogging the headlines as Labour and National push separate priorities. Unfortunately both priorities are pressing. But this is the New Zealand way. We ration our spending which invariably means everything costs more and happens too late. But there is a much criticised piece of infrastructure that is currently working very well. I'm talking about Eden Park which is taking a starring turn at the Women's World Cup. The weekend game of Spain versus Switzerland saw a new record for a football match in New Zealand. 43,217 spectators for a game that featured no New Zealanders. It's the third time the record has been set in the tournament as the audience enjoys the experience enough to go multiple times. Now where I live has been the base for a number of travelling supporters of teams and I have taken the time to have a chat to them about their experience. The love the stadium. They say it's quirky and has character and they are aware of the venue's history. They're a little surprised at the the lac

The media seems to be writing to a theme and the theme is "Rats leaving the sinking ship". Over the past few weeks there have been a string of stories about high profile and high net wealth New Zealanders leaving New Zealand because the place has apparently lost its vibe and energy. It's election year and a tactic to get rid of the Government is to prove that the country has gone to wrack and ruin I hate the tactic. It's like we had to burn the village to save it. Marc Ellis kicked it off. He made his fortune in professional sport, the media and the orange juice business. He's semi retired. He's relocating to Puglia in Italy where the property prices are cheap as chips, unlike New Zealand. He's right on that. Puglia is the heel of the boot of Italy. Its main industry is olive oil, that has seen technology strip the work force so there are empty houses galore in an area with loads of beaches. He's a rich man going to live in a poor place Also remember that Italy's tax rates are higher. Its GDP growth is slower

Well didn't Kiri Allan throw the cat amongst the pigeons last night. Driving along Evans Bay parade, the windy road on the East side of the bay that is used as a route out of Wellington, the Justice Minister hit a car. The cops turned up.  It turns out she's been drinking.  She refuses to accompany a police officer so she's hauled off to the police station to sit on a naughty chair until the early hours of the morning. She's the Justice Minister. She's been detained by the police. The Number 1 thing not to do in that job. She had returned a breath test over the legal limit but at a level considered an infringement offence and police will not press charges in relation to that. She was described as being very distressed So she quits her ministries and then the Prime Minister starts blaming her mental health. Just a few days after assuring us that her mental health was good enough to continue in her job. None of this is good.  None of this shows an ability to deal with stress and responsibility.  All of this sma

So, welcome back after the Matariki holiday weekend. Yesterday our media was full of stories of New Zealanders celebrating Matariki in all sorts of ways. Whether it was kite flying, or welcoming the dawn and trying to spot 9 dim stars as they pop over the horizon, or music festivals, or —in the case of the visiting US Womens Football team here for the World Cup— wishing everyone a happy Matariki and reminding you to remember all those in your family who have passed on. It was all a bit rah rah, but then again it's only the second time the holiday has been marked, so it's still new and we're figuring out what the holiday means Which gets up a lot of people's nose. They accuse the media of being complicit in a Government scheme to force an unwanted and unneeded holiday on New Zealanders. Social media was full of people claiming that Matariki is a made up holiday. Well, if you want a made up holiday, try King's Birthday Weekend which celebrates the birthday of a man who doesn't live in this country and even more