Montel Weekly

Cross-border electricity cables are controversial. For some they provide supply security while others believe they increase prices in markets used to low energy costs. Listen to a discussion on the impact the power links had amid a period of extremely cold weather in the Nordic region. In addition, what is the outlook for wholesale prices in the coming weeks and months – could Finland see a return of EUR 800/MWh?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Sigbjørn Seland, Chief Analyst, Storm GEO; Odd Gunnar Jakobsen, Analyst, Volt Power Analytics.

Germany faces a freeze on many counts over the coming weeks. Firstly, a cold snap is likely to send power prices spiralling. In addition, a budget freeze could hamper the country’s plans to meet its decarbonisation targets after a court ruled the EUR 60bn earmarked for its green transition was illegal. How will Europe’s largest energy consumer afford to keep the lights on?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Tobias Federico, Managing Director, Energy Brainpool

End of year round-up, outlookIn the next two episodes we discuss the key energy issues in the year to date with Montel journalists, while also looking forward to 2024. Despite markets having come a long way since the crisis of 2022, they remain jittery and volatile. Part one will focus on Spain, Italy and France, while part two discusses Germany, the Nordic region and global fuel markets.Host: Richard SverrissonGuests (Part one): Enza Tedesco, Editor Italy; Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain; Chris Eales, Editor France; Muriel Boselli, Correspondent FranceGuests (Part 2) : Andreas Lochner, Editor Germany; Gert Ove Mollestad, Editor Norway; Olav Vilnes, Editor Norway; Laurence Walker, Deputy Editor-in-Chief; Andres Cala, LNG Correspondent

In the next two episodes we discuss the key energy issues in the year to date with Montel journalists, while also looking forward to 2024. Despite markets having come a long way since the crisis of 2022, they remain jittery and volatile. Part one will focus on Spain, Italy and France, while part two discusses Germany, the Nordic region and global fuel markets.Host: Richard SverrissonGuests (Part one): Enza Tedesco, Editor Italy; Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain; Chris Eales, Editor France; Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France

Gas storage is ample, the weather has remained largely mild and French nuclear availability has returned to pre-Covid levels. However, given the escalating conflict in the Middle East and stalemate in Ukraine, several risks remain ahead of the winter season. Listen to a discussion on the outlook for prices amid a very jittery market. Also, will the EU impose sanctions on Russian LNG?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Henning Gloystein, Director for Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia;               Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG.

A bidding error in the Nordic spot power market could be the costliest fat finger event ever in European energy markets – both in terms of financial losses but also the reputational damage for the electricity system and the companies involved. Listen to a discussion on the events that led to EUR -500/MWh power prices and why some Finns treated it as Black Friday. Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Maarit Uusitalo, Manager, Market Solutions, Fingrid ;Riku Merikoski, Senior Power Analyst, Axpo; Gert Ove Mollestad, Editor Norway. 

The UK is reviewing a shift in how it prices electricity from a single wholesale market, with two locational alternatives under consideration: nodal or zonal. This week’s pod addresses the pros and cons of locational prices and whether they will help or hinder the UK’s quest for net-zero emissions.   Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Stephen Woodhouse,  Director Afry Management Consulting and Phil Hewitt, Director, Montel EnAppSys.

World climate negotiators will meet for UN-led talks in Dubai next week in attempt to slow warming that is exacerbating extreme weather from flooding to heatwaves to drought. Could COP28 provide impetus to Europe’s carbon market, where prices have dropped from a record high above EUR 101/t to a one year-low below EUR 75/t amid weak fundamentals and rising geopolitical risks. Listen to a discussion on the outlook for the EU’s key climate policy tool. Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Ingvild Sørhus, Lead Carbon Analyst, Veyt 

The BritNed cable has boosted power trading between the UK and the Netherlands. Listen to a discussion on post-Brexit trading, the impact of more prevalent negative prices and how the platform could set the standard for other interconnectors. Was the power link shackled or freed by the UK’s exit from the EU? Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Nils Teipel, Commercial Operations Manager, BritNed and Daniel Homoki-Farkas, Managing Director, Supercharge.

Debate has begun in Norway on the EU’s fourth energy package, that dates back to 2019. Listen to a discussion on the key elements of the legislation and why they are proving controversial. The perceived powers of the EU regulatory body Acer are of concern to many, but have they been misunderstood? Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Catherine Banet, Professor of Law, Head of Department of Energy and Resources Law, University of Oslo; Olav Vilnes, Editor Nordics, Montel. 

Corporate demand for guarantees of origin (GO) is hotting up and prices could soon be on the rise. Listen to a discussion on the growing importance of GOs not just for generators of electricity but also for a wider range of companies. Could the GO price become higher than the wholesale electricity price?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Bruno Brunetti, Head of low-carbon electricity analytics, S&P Global Commodity Insights. 

What will be the impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict on an already jittery and volatile gas market? Listen to a discussion of the potential consequences of a cut to Egyptian gas exports amid lower supply from Israel and what the situation will have on plans for a regional gas hub. In addition, what is the possibility of a reduction in LNG supplies through the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz should the war escalate?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Agata Loskot-Strachota, Energy Policy Research Fellow, Bruegel.

The recent incident of suspected sabotage affecting the Balticconnector – the gas pipeline linking Finland and Estonia – has highlighted the vulnerability of Europe’s energy network, especially offshore pipelines. Who or what is threatening gas links and power cables? Listen to a discussion on why it is imperative that countries work together to protect critical infrastructure and the ways in which this can be achieved.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Jakub Godzimirski, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs

The months ahead will be filled with uncertainty – and price volatility – as energy market participants assess the consequences of the escalating conflict in the Middle East and potential sabotage to the gas pipeline linking Finland with Estonia. Will these events override market fundamentals? Listen to a discussion of the key developments in UK and continental wholesale power and gas markets in the last quarter and the outlook for the coming months. Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Jean-Paul Harreman, Director, Montel EnAppSys,                   Paul Buckworth, Principal Consultant, Montel EnAppSys.

European wholesale gas prices are falling, stocks are close to full capacity and LNG is still flowing to the region, though as winter looms market participants cannot afford to relax, yet. Listen to a discussion on the factors that will influence supply and demand in the coming months. What is the risk that Russian LNG will completely stop flowing to Europe? And can we expect renewed industrial action at LNG facilities in Australia?  Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Andrés Cala, LNG Correspondent, Montel

Investors into the UK's renewable sector have expressed disbelief, disappointment and anger over plans by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to relax rules to phase out fossil fuel cars and boilers. Listen to a discussion on why the populist move makes no sense politically or financially as it will deprive areas outside of London of manufacturing opportunities and export potential. Will investors now prioritise other markets as the UK backpedals?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Helena Anderson, COO, Ikigai Capital 

Norwegian power prices have swung from record highs last year to all-time lows this year as supply in the hydropower-intensive nation shifted from deficit to surplus. While dry or wet weather generally drives prices, Norway is set for a long-term change from a power exporter to an importer as new capacity lags demand growth. Listen to a discussion about Norway’s struggle with new capacity, notably onshore wind – with only 3 of 356 local communities in approval – and why investors are looking elsewhere due to punitive and retrospective tax measures. Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Lars Ove Skorpen, Director, Pareto Securities                    Arvid Moss, Executive Vice President, Hydro Energy.

Floods, wildfires, heatwaves, drought and hurricanes. Extreme weather patterns are becoming more frequent in Europe and across the globe. But what does this mean for the way energy is produced, consumed and transported? Listen to a discussion on how the energy market will cope with shifting weather patterns like El Nino as the planet heats up. And, what's the outlook for winter in Europe? Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Robin Girmes, Managing Partner at Energy Weather

France has announced ambitious plans to build new nuclear plants, with up to 14 reactors potentially online by 2050. Yet its much vaunted new generation reactor at Flamanville is massively overbudget and more than a decade behind schedule. Listen to a discussion on why the grandiose plans by president Emmanuel Macron may not be realised, along with analysis of the main issues affecting the country's renewables objectives. Will it meet its 2030 targets?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Franck Gbaguidi, Director, Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia Group

Wholesale gas prices have been very volatile in August, largely over concerns of a reduction in supply due to strikes at Australian LNG facilities. The market has softened in recent days but risks of further spikes remain. Listen to a discussion on the price impact of the strike, maintenance on the Norwegian continental shelf and a potential cold snap. Also, how safe is northern Europe’s gas infrastructure from attack?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Ole Hvalbye, Commodities Analyst, SEB