Montel Weekly

European carbon prices have been sidelined by the debate around sanctions on gas, coal, and oil from Russia. However, EUA prices have seen huge volatility, with price swings of up to EUR 8 a day. Listen to a discussion on the price drivers over the short and medium-term,  and why EUR 100/t would be unsustainable. In addition, what is the likelihood of excluding financial entities, or speculators from the market?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Ingvild Sørhus, Lead EU Carbon Analyst, RefinitivMarcus Ferdinand, Head of Analysis, GreenfactBernadett Papp, Head of Research and Analysis, Vertis

Russia’s halt in gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria for their refusal to pay in rubles has the energy market guessing who might be next. It is still unclear whether customers agreeing to the Kremlin’s new terms is a breach in EU sanctions, even without an outright embargo on gas imports. Listen to a discussion on the apparent weaponization of gas, and what a further stop in Russian flows could do to European industry and wholesale prices.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Trevor Sikorski, Head of Natural Gas and Carbon Research, Energy Aspects

Italy lags behind many countries in harnessing its renewables potential, with the country’s energy transition hampered by cumbersome permitting rules. While that could be about to change due to government reform, other interventions such as taxes on green generators’ windfall profits may scare off investors. Listen to a discussion on the outlook for renewable energy in the country amid a scramble to replace Russian gas.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Stefano Cavriani, Co-Founder & Director of Ego Energy, and Riccardo Rossi, Head of Southern and Central Europe Origination, Centrica Energy Trading

In early April the UK announced ambitious plans to wean itself off non-domestic energy sources. Are plans to install 17 GW of nuclear capacity over the coming decades realistic? Who will build a new fleet of reactors, and more importantly, where will the cash come from? Listen to a discussion about why the government’s policy will fail to fix an energy crisis that threatens to plunge huge swathes of the country into energy poverty. Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Antony Froggatt, Senior Research Fellow, Chatham House

Russia is trying to force companies to pay for its gas in rubles, while the EU has still not decided to implement full energy sanctions amid opposition from some member states. Listen to a discussion on the legal issues for European firms surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the implications of a cut from either side. We also look at the current status of Nord Stream 2 and potential loopholes in the regulatory framework. Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Ana Stanic, Principal, E&A Law

The EU is considering energy sanctions on Russia amid reports of atrocities in its ongoing war in Ukraine but many countries fear the consequences of such measures on the economies of the 27-nation bloc. These potential measures comeo against the backdrop of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s posturing. Is Moscow’s short-term to aim to starve Europe of energy? And could oil and gas prices spike further in the weeks and months ahead?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Analyst, Commodities, SEB and Nadia Martin Wiggen, Partner and Chief Oil Analyst, Pareto Securities. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and ensuing Western sanctions have roiled European energy markets. EU nations are scrambling to find alternatives to Russian supplies, while Moscow is demanding payments be made in rubles. Who will win this energy conflict?Listen to an update on the EU’s strategy to wean off its dependency on Russia.Guest: Siobhan Hall, Brussels Correspondent, Montel

This week we focus on how Norway and Germany are coping with the energy crisis exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Oslo is subsidising household energy use, Berlin is reaching far and wide for alternatives to Russian gas.Listen to a discussion about their tough challenges and why they might succeed.Guests: Andreas Lochner, Editor Germany, Montel, Gert Ove Mollestad, Editor Norway, Montel

Many energy firms have been rapidly cutting ties with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. This week’s episode focuses on the deep ties French oil and gas major has with Moscow, its feud with the US and why a “Rexit” may be very difficult and very costly, for the company.We also touch on the financial challenges facing EDF and the role of energy in France’s upcoming presidential election.Guests: Chris Eales, Editor FranceMuriel Boselli, Correspondent France

Carbon market participants should brace themselves for more price volatility in the week to come - have we reached the bottom at EUR 55/t, or could prices climb to EUR 100/t?Listen to a discussion on the key drivers going forward, and whether compliance buying could offset selling by speculative and industrial companies. Guests: Ingvild Sorhus, Lead EU Carbon Analyst, RefinitivBernadett Papp, Analyst, Vertis Environmental Finance

The energy crisis that has engulfed Europe for months is set to continue well into 2023 amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and the concerns over gas and coal supplies from Russia. Will either side cut gas flows, or can Europe source alternative fossil fuels?Listen to a discussion on the hard choices facing Europe going forward and the outlook for wholesale prices. Guests: Wayne Bryan, Director, European Gas Research, London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG)Laurence Walker, Editor Montel

The prices of European guarantees of origin have soared in recent weeks amid robust demand, strong commodity markets and low hydro levels in the Nordic region.Listen to a discussion on the outlook for GO prices amid increasing interest from corporates, as well as forecasts for carbon prices amid ongoing policy and regulatory reforms.Marcus Ferdinand, Head of Analysis, Greenfact

As Russian troops pour into Ukraine, we recorded a special episode looking into the implications for Europe’s wholesale energy markets. As we go to press, piped gas continues to flow from Russia, but what are the chances of a supply curtailment? Europe needs to find alternatives and make some hard decisions, in what our guest calls a “merit order of torture”.Guest: Georg Zachmann, Senior Fellow, Bruegel

Hardly a week goes past without a company announcing ambitious plans to produce green hydrogen. But are these projects realistic?Listen to a discussion on the folly of using hydrogen as a fuel in the transport, heating and power generation sectors and the sectors where H2 has an important role. Is hydrogen a panacea for the green transition, or a vehicle for greenwashing?Guests: Paul Martin, Spitfire Research ConsultingJan Cihlar, Managing Consultant, Guidehouse

After we recorded this episode, French President Macron announced plans to build up to 14 reactors by 2050. But earlier in the week, EDF announced that it would cut its available 2022 nuclear output by about 5% to between 295 and 315 TWh, a record low.Listen to a discussion on the latest corrosion problems at the country’s nuclear plants and what they could mean for supply security and prices across north-west Europe. Is building more reactors the answer, and are such plans economically viable?Guests:Chris Eales, Editor France, MontelPaolo Coghe, CEO, Acousmatics

Continued tension between Ukraine and Russia has supported European wholesale prices, which remain at historically high levels.This week’s pod delves into the potential consequences of an armed conflict for gas supply to Europe, the impact on prices and market ignorance of some key policymakers. Will Russia cut gas flows and are alternative supplies available elsewhere?Guests: Jonathan Stern, Distinguished Research Fellow, Oxford Institute for Energy StudiesCarlos Torres Diaz, Director Power and Gas Market Research, Rystad Energy

The consequences of energy price spikes and massive wholesale market volatility have not only hit the pockets of households and the balance sheets of industrial firms, but have also slowed the pace of deals for power purchase agreements (PPAs). Will the energy crisis and the threat of regulatory intervention cause the expansion of renewables to wobble?Listen to a discussion on the key deals (and dealmakers) of 2021 and the outlook for this year.Guest: Luca Pedretti, COO and Co-Founder of PexaparkTo get more insights from Luca, you can join this Pexapark webinar: link

The Nordic region has not escaped the unprecedented energy price levels seen elsewhere, but according to this week’s guests, remains competitive compared to other parts of Europe and the world.Listen to a discussion on the outlook for electricity prices and the market consequences of the crisis. Could the region see the introduction of price caps and export limitations?Guests: Sigbjørn Seland, Chief Analyst, Storm GeoMia Bodin, Head of Analysis, Bodecker Partners

European wholesale gas prices have softened in recent days on forecasts of mild weather and the prospects of LNG imports but they are set to remain at historic highs for many weeks to come.This week’s pod discusses the crucial question of Russian gas supply, LNG shipments in the first quarter and Asian demand. When will the energy crisis ease?Guest: Trevor Sikorski, Head of Natural Gas, Oil and Carbon Research, Energy Aspects

Some German energy retailers went under last year, but many more could follow suit in 2022 as the consequences of soaring prices and poor hedging strategies become clear.Listen to a discussion about whether the existing marginal pricing model is fit for purpose, particularly as renewable energy capacity ramps up and nuclear and coal are phased out. Plus, how will the new German government cope with a potential supply crunch.Guest:Tobias Federico, Managing Director, Energy Brainpool