Never Mind The Bar Charts

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts features Paula Surridge once again, who since last time has been promoted to Professor - congratulations! We talk about what's driving British politics, whether the Conservatives can win next time - and what lessons she sees in the data for the Liberal Democrats. Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes Some of Paula's previous appearances: on the role of values, the Lib Dem win in Tiverton & Honiton and how Boris Johnson won the 2019 general election. How the polls can be wrong - but why you should still pay attention to them. The British Social Attitudes Survey. The moderate pitch of Mrs Thatcher in 1979. Jonn Elledge on how Labour winning power would change the terms of British politics. What that reference to seven bins was about. The long-term liberalisation of Britain. The British General Election of 2019 by Rob Ford, Tim Bale, Will Jennings and Paula Surridge: Amazon / Wate

  It took decades of campaigning for Prohibition campaigners to win in the US, getting alcohol banned in the early twentieth century. Once they'd won, their victory seemed set to last. Yet in less than a decade and a half their victory had been undone and the the idea killed off politically. So can pro-Europeans take heart from drawing parallels between Prohibition and Brexit?   Find out in the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts as I discuss this with Professor Ben Ansell who has just written a great piece comparing Prohibition and Brexit.   Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.   Show notes   Ben Ansell's piece, Brexit's 21st Amendment: Can the Rejoin campaign learn anything from the End of Prohibition? Abraham Lincoln on the political value of honey. Plastic bags chaos looms ... Supermarkets are braced for chaos and confusion (the Daily Mail, of course). Polling on Europe. Why Politics Fails by Ben Ansell: Amazon / Waterstones / Bookshop.org * Ben

So wrote John Curtice after the latest record-breaking Parliamentary by-election by the Liberal Democrats. Who better therefore to discuss how happy Liberal Democrats should be after Sarah Dyke's victory than Frome-born political scientist and podcast favourite, Professor Tim Bale? Hear what Tim and I made of all three of the recent Parliamentary by-elections in the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts. Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes There were quite a few Lib Dem leaflets in Somerton and Frome. The Lib Dem alternative on ULEZ. The predictive power of Parliamentary by-elections. The Liberal Democrat Yellow Halo of support. What issues most concern voters? Tim Bale on Twitter. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show’s most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Follow the show on Twitter. Share the show’s website, www.Neve

Florian Foos has worked with eight different political parties in five different countries carrying out field experiments to test what does and doesn't work in election campaigning. So I invited him on Never Mind The Bar Charts to talk about what both his research and that of others reveals.   Show notes How Much GOTV Mail is Too Much? Results from a Large-Scale Field Experiment by Adam Zelitzer and Donald P. Green Get Out the Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout: How to Increase Voter Turnout by Donald P. Green and Alan S. Gerber: Amazon / Bookshop.org / Waterstones* How same-sex marriage campaigners won people over by finding common values. Abraham Lincoln's advice on winning campaigns by befriending rather than demonising people. Reasons to be sceptical of the impact of deep canvassing. Florian Foos on Twitter. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. Image by Nathan Copley from Pixabay. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popul

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts features Sam Freedman, talking about his recent excellent article on why apparently obvious policy ideas keep on being talked about, but not getting implemented. What's going on? Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes The Policy Paradox: The more obvious an idea is the less likely it will happen. David Gauke's proposal for an Office for Spending Evaluation. Lynne Featherstone on the Institute for Government's induction sessions for new ministers. The Shelter report on housing mentioned in the show. How Keith House and colleagues get houses built in Eastleigh. Sam Freedman's email newsletter. Sam Freedman on Twitter. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Follow the show on Twitter. Share the show's website, www.NeverMin

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts saw a return to the show for Professor Caitlin Milazzo, one of the county's top experts on political leaflets - what goes into them why and with what effect. This time we discussed her new research into negative campaigning in leaflets. Show notes “Going on the offensive: Negative messaging in British general elections” by Alan Duggan and Caitlin Milazzo. The Open Elections website. How are political leaflets changing (and do they work)? Caitlin Milazzo’s previous appearance. Caitlin Milazzo on Twitter. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show’s most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Follow the show on Twitter. Share the show’s website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts is another tie-up with The Lib Dem Podcast, following the stunning Lib Dem gains in the local elections. I joined councillors John Potter and Richard Kemp, along with new Lib Dem council leader Martin Boffey, to chew over the results. Unfortunately, Lisa Smart was not able to make the show, but she was safely re-elected this month too. Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes Watch the podcast on YouTube. The Lib Dem Podcast on Twitter. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Follow the show on Twitter. Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.

I really enjoyed reading Professor Tim Bale's new book, The Conservative Party After Brexit. So who better to have on the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts to discuss the point of such books, how such an apparently ramshackle party keeps on winning elections, the power of party conference speeches and what Rishi Sunak's politics really are than the man himself? Tim that is, rather than the PM. Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation by Tim Bale - Bookshop (independent bookshops) / Amazon / Waterstones.* I was kindly provided with an advance copy by the publishers. Tim Bale on Twitter. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Follow the show on Twitter. Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.c

Find out the answer to that... and speculate on what Tim Harford and Matt Forde would be like as MPs with the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts.   Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.   Show notes   Public Preferences for Integrity and Accountability in Politics: the research report we discuss. Ipsos trust data. Alan Renwick on Twitter. Image by David Mark from Pixabay. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes.   Enjoy the show? Spread the word   Follow the show on Twitter. Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.  

  For the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts, I'm speaking with Cllr Keith House, leader of Eastleigh Council. The local team has an impressive record of building houses on green fields and (yet also) getting re-elected. How have they managed this combo, and what can other Liberal Democrats learn from it?   Take a listen to find out...   Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.   Show notes   Howards' Way. How the first Liberal was elected to Eastleigh Council – and how politics didn’t have a golden age Cllr Keith House on Twitter. Image by Peter H from Pixabay. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes.   Enjoy the show? Spread the word   Follow the show on Twitter. Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.  

Many attempts at reforming the House of Lords have been made. Many attempts have failed. So what can would-be reformers learn from the failures of their predecessors to achieve more? Professor Meg Russell, director of the Constitution Unit at UCL, joined me to share her expertise on this in the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts. Listeners may wish to enjoy her correcting me on voting systems. Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.   Show notes Meg Russell on the podcast previously, talking about reforming the House of Commons. The Changing Role of the House of Lords: the Constitution Unit's research on the House of Lords. The House of Lords Appointments Commission. The Parliamentary Battle over Brexit by Meg Russell and Lisa James: Bookshop (independent bookshops) / Amazon / Waterstones.* The Constitution Unit on Twitter. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. Photo courtesy of UK Parliament (used under Creative Commons BY-NC-ND 2.0). New to listening to podcasts?

It was a warm welcome back to Professor Tim Bale for the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts. We revisited the five tests for opposition parties we've discussed before. How have Labour and the Lib Dems been performing against them? Take a listen to find out... Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes Our original discussion of five tests for opposition parties. Our December 2020 and March 2022 updates. Jon Mellon's research into how well people know the result last time in their own constituency. The YouGov 0-10 voting propensity tracker. Pre-order Tim Bale's new book, The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation: Amazon.* Tim Bale on Twitter. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Follow the show on Twitter. Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.   * This is an affiliate link whi

I recently appeared on the No Man's Land podcast, which describes itself as a, "pod on politics and centrism, for those stuck between political trenches". But rather than talk about whether or not the Liberal Democrats should aim to be centrist, we talked political polling. Hope you enjoy the conversation, which we recorded before Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister. Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes No Man's Land podcast. Host Steve O'Neil on Twitter. My book, Polling UnPacked. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Follow the show on Twitter. Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.  

A nice easy question for me and Callum Robertson to chew over in the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts. Here's what we made of it... Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes Labour NEC member deselected as a councillor. The core vote argument. Michael Crick's Twitter account tracking Parliamentary selection contests. Callum Robertson on Twitter. For a Fair Deal: the Lib Dem plan for the UK. Sam Seaborn on taxing the rich on The West Wing. Electoral Shocks: The Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World by Edward Fieldhouse and others: Amazon, Bookshop, Waterstones.*  Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Follow the show on Twitter. Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com. * This list includes affiliate links which generate a commission for each sale made.

I joined John Potter and the Lib Dem Pod team for a special show looking at why the party cancelled its autumn federal conference in Brighton. We talked about the decision with Federal Conference Committee Chair, Cllr Nick da Costa, Cllr Hannah Kitching and PPC Laura Gordon.  Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes Why conference was cancelled and the alternatives considered. Latest information on hotel and travel refunds. The Lib Dem Pod podcast. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Follow the show on Twitter. Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.

Podcast favourite Tim Bale has a new book out about how Brexit happened - both why the referendum was called and then why it was lost. Discussing his book on the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts we get into how the real trigger of Brexit was the Blue Wall, not the Red Wall. Take a listen to find out why... Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes Tim Bale on Twitter. Michael Crick's Twitter account about MP selections. Jonathan Portes's article on what Leave campaigners promised on immigration. Brexit: an accident waiting to happen? Why David Cameron called the 2016 Referendum - and why he lost it by Tim Bale: Amazon.* For the record by David Cameron: Amazon, Bookshop, Waterstones.*  Theme tune by Hugo Lee. Photo by Samuel Regan-Asante on Unsplash. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Follow the show on Twitter. Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarC

What are Conservative Party members like? Who are they going to pick for party leader? And what does it mean for the Liberal Democrats? Find out in the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts, where I teamed up again with the Lib Dem Pod and ace expert, Professor Tim Bale. Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes The Lib Dem Pod. Tim Bale on Twitter. How do you make someone join a political party? One of the previous top shows with Professor Tim Bale. Footsoldiers: political party membership in the 21st century - one of Tim Bale's great studies of party membership with colleagues: Bookshop (independent bookshops) / Amazon.* Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Follow the show on Twitter. Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com. * This list includes affiliate links which generate a commission for each sale made.

How much more of a spring in our step should Liberal Democrats have after the Tiverton and Honiton win, and what are the lessons for the party? After discussing this last week with the Lib Dem Pod team, for the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts I invited back an outside expert, political scientist Paula Surridge. Let's see how much cold water Paula has to pour on Lib Dem hopes... Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes One, two, three Liberal Democrat Parliamentary by-election victories. Last year's popular episode with Paula after Chesham & Amersham. Graph from Will Jennings on the predictive power of Parliamentary by-elections.  The similarities between North Shropshire and Tiverton & Honiton: Paula Surridge's two graphs - one and two.  More in Common's polling and focus groups on trans rights. Follow council by-election results. UK in a Changing Europe website. Follow Paula Surridge on Twitter. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to

I joined the Lib Dem Pod team shortly after the amazing win for Richard Foord in Tiverton & Honiton to discuss how it happened and what it means. See what Sam, Richard, John and I made of the result... Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes Richard Foord's amazing win. The wonderful Frank Doran. The Lib Dem Pod - do go have a listen to their other episodes. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Follow the show on Twitter. Like the show on Facebook. Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.

I was really lucky to have Professor Jane Green as my guest for the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts as she's co-author of an important new report into British politics: "Red Wall, Red Herring? Economic Insecurity and Voting Intention in Britain". Along the way she politely demolished some of what I've said in the past and provided pointers for what the Liberal Democrats should do in the future. Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes Red Wall, Red Herring? - full report from Jane Green and Roosmarijn de Geus. One of the key findings from the report. Will British politics become less volatile, and how important is ideology? - previous episode with Jane Green. Professor Jane Green on Twitter. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Follow the show on Twitter. Like the show on Facebook. Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.