National Security Conversations

Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Jeff M. Smith (Research Fellow, South Asia, in The Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center, and author of “Cold Peace: China-India Rivalry in the Twenty-First Century”) about President Donald Trump’s ongoing visit to India (Feb 2020) and the issues on the agenda for this visit. Mr. Smith discusses the dynamics of trade relations between the two countries in light of the suspension of India’s GSP status. How does the revocation of privileges accruing from India’s status as developing nation get affected by USTR's clarification of India as a developed nation before President Trump's visit? Mr. Smith cautions against India's excessive partisanship towards the Trump presidency and endorses a broader political outreach. He also discusses the convergence of India-US interests over China and the larger Indo-Pacific strategy and ends with remarks on India’s possible role in US's policy on Afghanistan.

Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Dr TV Paul (James McGill Professor of International Relations at McGill University) about the contemporary international order. Dr Paul identifies the peculiarities of the current global order, which he states is in a period of transition and flux. He assess India’s place in the world today, and critically analyses its quest for great power status. He dwells upon a multiplicity of factors – hard as well as soft power factors – that constitute a great power. He throws light on India’s trajectory in search of great power status, highlighting the areas where it faces major challenges. Dr Paul also discusses India’s soft balancing strategy vis-à-vis China and with other great powers in general.

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks with Arun Mohan Sukumar about his book, Midnight’s Machines. In his book, Mr Sukumar charts the political history of technology in India since the end of the Second World War. In this conversation he lays out India’s tryst with technology under the aegis of various prime ministers, from Jawaharlal Nehru to Indira Gandhi to Rajiv Gandhi and Narendra Modi. He also dwells upon many considerations, ranging from philosophical and moral to outright political that led leaders like Nehru and others to temper and manage how Indian people viewed technology and interacted with it.

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks with Amb. Vijay Nambiar (Retd. Indian Diplomat) about the international reaction to the amended Citizen Amendment Act (CAA) 2019. Amb. Nambiar discusses the manner in which the international community has reacted and how the Indian government has diplomatically handled these reactions in order to minimize negative implication for its foreign policy goals. Amb. Nambiar also discusses how India’s reaction to criticisms of its amendment to CAA shows a shift in its international outlook and foreign policy and how this could affect India’s image and perception in the international system.

In this episode, Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks with P. Chidambaram, Former Home & Finance Minister about the situation in Kashmir after the BJP government's decision to abrogate Article 370. The conversation revolves around the government’s logic behind the decision and its immediate and long term implications for India's national security. The conversation also focuses on the following specific questions: How can the government now work towards normalising the valley? Did this decision undo years of efforts by successive governments to integrate the people and the polity of Jammu and Kashmir into the rest of India? Where does Pakistan, if at all, figure in any Indian effort to bring peace and stability in Jammu and Kashmir? What mistakes were made by the previous governments in dealing with the valley and what lessons did they learn? Will the August 5 decision lead to Jammu and Kashmir becoming a bigger challenge than it was before this decision for all future governments?

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks with Gopal Krishna Pillai [India’s former Home Secretary (2009 – 2011)] about a range of issues that constitute the Naga question, or the Naga quest for greater autonomy. He provides a historical overview of the Naga issue, the unilateral declaration of independence, the Indian state’s response, the insurgency and the many efforts at peace that have been made. Mr. Pillai highlights the many factions within the Naga movement, delineating their respective positions and demands. Mr. Pillai explains what he thinks of the 2015 framework agreement and the progress that has been made since then.

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks with Prof. Anit Mukherjee (Assistant Professor in the South Asia Programme at the Nanyang Technological University and a former Major of the Indian Army) about the state of India’s civil-military relations, which forms the theme of his book titled, “The Absent Dialogue: Politicians, Bureaucrats, and the Military in India”. Prof. Mukherjee identifies the factors characterizing India’s civil-military relations, which in turn have a bearing upon the effectiveness of the Indian military. Prof. Mukherjee addresses the various parameters of military effectiveness such as weapons procurement, jointness, military education, defence planning, etc. which are seriously affected by “the Absent Dialogue” within India’s civil-military relations. He offers several recommendations to overcome these challenges.

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks to Amb. Chandrashekhar Dasgupta (Rtd. Indian Diplomat and Author) about the international discourse on climate change, unpacking the various themes that it entails. He elaborates on the twin aspects of responding to climate change: mitigation and adaptation. Furthermore, Amb. Dasgupta discusses the international climate change regime, beginning from the Rio Convention, through the Kyoto Protocol up till the recent Paris Agreement. He also assesses the implications of the US withdrawal from the Paris agreement. Finally, he stresses the significance of climate activism and suggests ways to move forward. He provides a comprehensive analysis of India’s efforts to combat climate change, and suggests areas requiring further impetus.

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks to Amb. Talmiz Ahmad (Retd. Indian Diplomat and Author) about the emerging geopolitical situation in West Asia. He builds on his analysis of the region in the previous episode (Ep. 66: Part 1) to suggest the imperative and avenues for increasing the Indian role in the region. He speaks of Eurasia and the Indian Ocean Region as one integrated security space with deep historical connectivity, and argues for greater Indian involvement in the region. He also identifies several misnomers and psychological barriers that have so far dampened India’s attitude towards the region and hindered the prospects for cooperation and security in a broader sense.

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks to Amb. Talmiz Ahmad (Retd. Indian Diplomat and Author) about the current state of affairs in West Asia. He provides a sweeping survey of politics in West Asia in the context of great power politics. He provides a critical account of US interventionism in the region and its consequences, both intended and unintended. Amb. Ahmad traces the genealogy of various regional conflicts: Arab-Israeli (Israel-Palestine) conflict, the stand-off between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and other major crises in Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Amb. Ahmad also offers a way forward.

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks to Amb. Ranjit Rae [Rtd. IFS, and India’s former ambassador to Hungary (with concurrent accreditation as Ambassador to Slovenia, Bosnia, and Herzegovina) (20016-10), and then ambassador to Vietnam (2010-13) & was India’s ambassador to Nepal till 2017] about India-Nepal relations, both at a bilateral level and at a regional level. Amb. Rae traces the historical evolution of India-Nepal relations. He highlights the significance of India’s relationship with Nepal, both in terms of deeper historical ties rooted in religion, culture, and tradition and from a strategic point of view. In response to an inquiry by Dr. Jacob on India’s unofficial blockade of Nepal, Amb. Rae argues that India’s policy has been to support a democratic, inclusive Nepal, and at major turning points in Nepal’s history, India has supported what the people of Nepal have wanted. He considers and debates the concern over increasing Chinese involvement in Nepal, and argues that threat to India is exaggerated, and d

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks to Prof. Amita Batra (Professor at Centre for South Asian Studies in School of International Studies at JNU) about India’s decision to stay out of the RCEP. She discusses the significance that RCEP’s membership would have had for India. The conversation discusses the reasons behind India’s decision of pulling out from the mega-free trade agreement and the conditions under which India may reconsider its decision in the future. Prof. Batra argues that while at present India’s decision may have been a considered one but the onus of benefiting from RCEP in the future lies with India. Reforms to this end should focus on enhancing India’s its industrial and manufacturing competitiveness, which is the bottom-line for entering into any deal. The conversation also discusses India’s overall FTA strategy in general and the strategies which would allow India to take advantage of FTAs as strategic trade instruments like other countries. Prof. Batra recommends setting up of an independent domestic

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks with Professor Peter Jones (Associate Professor at Graduate School of Public and International Affairs in the University of Ottawa) about conflict and cooperation in the new world order. The conversation discusses whether responses to the resurgence of China can be categorized as the new Cold War. Prof. Jones argues that current international politics is not marked by an ideological conflict, which was the defining characteristic of the Cold War, rather, Great power rivalry is a better paradigm to understand the resurgence of China and the resulting realignments. Prof. Jones suggest that while identifying certain residual frameworks from Cold War era with regard to nuclear weapons and arms control can be used to explain current world politics, characterizing the present international political order as embroiled in a new Cold War is inaccurate.

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks to Max Rodenbeck (South Asia Bureau Chief of the Economist) about the international reactions to the situation in Jammu & Kashmir after its autonomy under Article 370 was removed and the state was bifurcated into two union territories. Mr Rodenbeck argues that while constitutionality of the move may be debated, the fact remains that people of Jammu & Kashmir were not consulted, which is quite a blot on the Indian democracy. He further addresses the issue of the orchestrated visit of far-right members of the European Parliament to Kashmir, a move that has backfired internationally. Dr. Jacob and Mr Rodenbeck also discuss the heated diplomatic exchange between India & China over what India calls a domestic issue. On the question of the UN Human Rights body’s concern over Kashmir, Mr. Rodenbeck argues that it might not be in India’s interest, in the longer run, to undermine the legitimacy of these institutions. He also addresses the larger implications for the people in J&am

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks to Ambassador Nirupama Rao [Foreign Secretary from 2009 to 2011, and India's Ambassador to the United States, China as well as High Commissioner to Sri Lanka] about the second informal summit between President Xi Jinping and PM Modi in Chennai. She discusses the significance of such informal summits in general and the room they provide for discussion and progress beyond the formality and protocols that often beset formal meetings and summits. She identifies and elaborates on the various issues that drive India-China relations including the border dispute, China’s nexus with Pakistan, the BRI and the CPEC, among others. Amb. Rao also comments on the fallouts of the August 5 decision to read down Article 370, the international fallout and the diplomatic way ahead for India.

Happymon Jacob speaks to Professor PR Kumawaswamy (Professor at School of International Studies in JNU and Honorary Director of Middle East Institute, New Delhi) about the evolution of India-Israel relations. He discusses the various aspects of India’s relationship with Israel in the context of India’s larger West Asia policy. He describes the various phases that mark India’s relationship with Israel from having no formal diplomatic relations to forging an increasingly significant strategic partnership. Prof. Kumaraswamy also addresses India’s evolving stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict, human rights issues, and the so-called convergence of Hindutva and Zionism.

In this episode, Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks to Lt. Gen. Satish Dua (Retd., Indian Army) and Air Vice-Marshal Arjun Subramaniam (Retd., Indian Air Force) about PM Narendra Modi’s announcement this Independence Day to create the position of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS). The major role of a CDS in bringing about integration and jointmanship among the three services is also discussed along with the manner in which the position of CDS should be created. Questions of rank and hierarchy of the Chief of Defence Staff are also addressed, while simultaneously addressing the concerns of the three services respectively.

Happymon Jacob speaks to Rajeswari Rajagopalan (Distinguished Fellow & Head of the Nuclear and Space Policy Initiative, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi) about India’s space program and its evolution through the decades. She stresses upon having a robust space policy and an aerospace command. She also assesses the complexities involved in the latest Chandrayaan-2 mission. She discusses major avenues of cooperation for the Indian space program in the region and the competition it faces from China. She further discusses major debates around Anti-Satellite Weapons, Militarization of Space and the role of Global Governance in coming up with an international policy on space.

Happymon Jacob speaks to Amb. Nils Ragnar Kamsvåg (Ambassador of Norway to India since 2015) about Norway’s place in the comity of nations as a peace-builder. Norwegian efforts and contribution toward UN peacekeeping is discussed and decline in the same since 1990s is also analysed. Amb. Kamsvåg identifies Norway’s peace-building credentials as reflective of its foreign policy objective of establishing a rule-based international order. He addresses the controversy surrounding Norway’s former PMs offer to mediate on Kashmir conflict between India & Pakistan, stating that Norway’s official position is that Kashmir is a bilateral issue. Amb. Kamsvåg talks about evolution of India-Norway relations over his tenure as Ambassador of Norway to India since 2015.

Happymon Jacob speaks to Vipin Narang (Author of Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era) about the status of India’s No First Use Nuclear policy in light of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s statement that India’s adherence to ‘No First Use’ in future will depend on the circumstances. Mr. Narang argues that continued aggression by Pakistan has led to shift in India’s counterforce strategy. It has prompted the leadership in Delhi to explore more flexible pre-emptive counterforce options in an attempt to re-establish deterrence. He also discusses nuclear escalation dynamics between India and Pakistan and possible strategies for the two nuclear armed neighbours.