National Security Conversations

Happymon Jacob speaks to Amb. TCA Raghavan about the geopolitical implications of India’s decision to abrogate Article 370. Amb. Raghavan examines Pakistan’s responses, i.e. downgrading of diplomatic ties with India and taking the matter to UN Security Council. He also examines the impact of abrogation of Article 370 on Sino-India, Indo-Afghan relations and repercussions on India’s central Asia policy.

Happymon Jacob talks about recent developments in Jammu & Kashmir, the reasons why the Indian government chose to scrap Article 370, the manner in which this was done & its domestic and international implications. "India made J&K an international issue in 1947 by taking it to the UN, demoted it to a bilateral issue in 1972 (Simla Agreement) & now considers it as a unilateral (domestic) issue in 2019", Dr. Jacob argues.

In this episode, Happymon Jacob speaks with Amb. Rakesh Sood (India) & Amb. Salman Bashir (Retd. Foreign Secretary of Pakistan & Former High Commissioner of Pakistan to India) and discusses the Lahore Declaration (signed in 1999), and its renewed importance in the aftermath of Pulwama and Balakot. The conversation discusses the confidence-building measures (CBMs) that emerged as a consequence of this declaration, in line with the Simla agreement (1972).

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks with Saikat Dutta (South Asia Editor at Asia Times Online & Strategic Advisor at NullCon) about a story he published on the Indian military undergoing major reforms that will have far reaching consequences for India’s military strategy towards Pakistan and China. He speaks about the trajectory of these reforms and the rationale behind them. Mr. Dutta dwells upon the state of jointness within the Indian military vis-à-vis China and how this may affect future conflict scenarios. He highlights inadequacies in India’s defence spending and provides his analysis of the latest defence budget, all the while offering an insightful understanding of how India is planning to fight future wars and the gaps that continue to dog them. 

In this episode, Shah Faesal (Former Bureaucrat & Founder of Jammu & Kashmir People’s Movement), is interviewed by Dr. Happymon Jacob and Amber Rahim Shamsi (Pakistani Journalist and host of ‘Sawaal with Amber’ on Samaa TV). He speaks about his experience of growing up in Jammu & Kashmir and his years in bureaucracy, which he resigned from in 2018. He offers his understanding of J&K as a tripartite conflict between India, Pakistan and the people of J&K. He discusses his decision to enter active politics and launching his own party, Jammu & Kashmir People’s Movement, which he posits as an alternative for resolution in Jammu & Kashmir. Mr. Faesal stresses on the resolution of J& K conflict with foremost consideration of Kashmiri people and their involvement in any such process.

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks with Niranjan Sahoo [Author of two books: Politics of Power Sector Reforms in India, Pentagon Press, 2007 and Reservation Policy and its Implementation across Domains in India: An Analytical Review, Academic Foundation, 2009] about Maoist Insurgency in India with reference to his recently published paper titled “Half a Century of India’s Maoist Insurgency: An Appraisal of State Response.” Mr. Sahoo provides a historical overview of the Naxalite movement and speaks about major course of events that posited it as the “single-biggest threat” to Indian State by the mid-2000s. He speaks about the Indian state’s counterinsurgency approach. Mr. Sahoo also addresses controversies regarding state-sponsored vigilante group Salwa-Judum (or Purification Hunt) and debate surrounding the so called “Urban Naxals".

Happymon Jacob speaks with Sushobha Barve (Executive Secretary & Programme Director, Centre for Dialogue & Reconciliation, New Delhi) about her peace-building efforts in different parts of the country, especially in Kashmir. She talks about civil peacebuilding initiatives in Jammu & Kashmir carried out by her organization. She illustrates the importance of wide-ranging community level dialogues. She also dwells on her experience working with riot-affected communities in Mumbai after 1993 bomb blasts and the impact of such violence on communities. Mrs. Barve argues that the government in New Delhi must work towards ending hostilities in Jammu & Kashmir and must increase its efforts to engage at the level of communities.

Happymon Jacob speaks with Wajahat Habibullah (Former Chairperson for National Commission for Minorities and the First Chief Information Commissioner of India, an officer of the Jammu & Kashmir Cadre of the Indian Administrative Services, and the author of the much-acclaimed book, ‘My Kashmir: The Dying of the Light’) about the evolution of Jammu & Kashmir’s relations vis-à-vis the Indian state. Mr Habibullah elucidates upon the declining faith in Indian democratic institutions in particular and the Indian state in general. He discusses issues like corruption in bureaucracy, policy paralysis and political abdication, and other issues that have prevented democratic institutions from assimilating the aspirations of Kashmiri people. Have Articles 370 and 35A stabilized centre-state relations, as envisioned? What can future governments in New Delhi learn from these issues to reinstate faith in democratic institutions and the idea of India? These questions are also discussed in the conversation.

Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Siddhartha Gigoo (Author of ‘Long Dream of Home’ and ‘A Fistful of Earth’) about the social and political circumstances in which Kashmiri Pandits had to leave Kashmir. Mr Gigoo narrates his first experience of persecution as a young boy and the escalation of such instances from harmless banter to organized exodus. He asserts that successive governments have failed to rehabilitate Kashmiri Pandits to their ‘homeland’, and have merely used their cause for electoral gains. Mr Gigoo laments at the loss of identity, dignity and a sense of belonging that Kashmiri Pandits, now settled across the world have experienced. The Kashmiri Pandit mind is now torn between deceitful hope and a dissipating longing for return.

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks with Dr. David Devadas (Senior Journalist and author of ‘The Story of Kashmir’ and ‘The Generation of Rage in Kashmir’) about his two books. Dr. Devadas argues that one of the reasons why insurgency has returned to the valley most recently is because both the state and central government apparatus have failed to capitalize on the impact of PM Vajpayee’s outreach to Kashmir. He argues that policymakers have successively failed to capture the pulse on the ground, often focused on projecting ‘normalcy’ in the state for the rest of the country. The conversation also looks at how a rapidly changing social geography, influence of smartphones, problems of education, and international war on terror, etc., have influenced a new generation in Kashmir, which is vehemently anti-India. The conversation tries to address some common misperceptions about the insurgency in the valley and suggest ways in which stability could be established.

Happymon Jacob speaks with Abhijnan Rej (Defense Analyst & Political Risk Consultant) about India’s Defense budget. Mr. Rej compares defense budgets of the UPA and NDA governments and looks at how much has been allocated to capital and revenue aspects of defense. Additionally he talks about defense misspends, reasons why defense modernisation in budgets of successive governments bear the burnt when it comes to budget cuts; relationship between opposition to small sizing the Indian army and electoral implications due to shift in recruitment patterns from martial to non-martial states & other holy cows concerning defense spending. The conversation also touches upon the concepts of two & two and half front wars, India’s nuclear doctrine and indigenous defense production. In conclusion Mr Rej argues that intent without capabilities is bluffing, but if this bluff is exposed either by China or Pakistan, the outcomes for India will not be good. Hence any future government must focus on capabilities by re

Happymon Jacob speaks with Commander Abhijit Singh (Head of Maritime Policy Initiative, ORF) about the Indo-Pacific region and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). How does India view the Indo-Pacific region and what is its maritime strategy to maintain control over it? How do various actors involved, i.e. China, US, Australia view this region? Is India soft pedalling the QUAD? Why has India shied away from militarising the QUAD? How central is China’s growing military presence in the Indian Ocean and its overt aggression in the South China Sea, to the aims and objectives of the QUAD? Has India done enough to hedge against Chinese advances in the Western Indian Ocean? What should be India’s grand strategic thinking vis-à-vis Chinese naval advancement and incursions in the Indo-Pacific?

Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Dr Manoj Joshi, author of the book ‘The Lost Rebellion: Kashmir in the Nineties’, about the history of insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir. Dr. Joshi discusses the primary and secondary factors that led to the rise of insurgency, the role of Pakistan, the response of the Indian government, the experiences of the security forces in controlling the insurgency and the impact of events in Afghanistan in the 1980’s. The conversation also compares this rise of insurgency to what we have witnessed over the last decade. Does Pakistan play an equal role today as it did in the 90s? Have the Indian government and security forces adapted well to respond to insurgency in the state today? What has gone wrong and what needs to change in Indian government’s counter insurgency response? These are some questions Dr Joshi attempts to answer.

Happymon Jacob speaks with Dr. Jabin T. Jacob (Associate Professor at the Department of International Relations and Governance Studies, Shiv Nadar University) about China vetoing the request to put Masooz Azar on terror black list. What explains the Chinese behaviour of staking its relations with India for this cause? Does the China-Pakistan grand strategic alliance aim at more than just containing India? The conversation also discusses the specifics of China’s strategies in its dealing with India. Does post-Wuhan phase offer more scope of rapprochement between the two giants or is just an eyewash? Does India have a choice to not accept rising dominance of China in the region and whether boycotting forums like CPEC and OBOR further Indian strategic objectives in the region?

Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Amb. Vivek Katju (India’s Amb. to Thailand, Afghanistan and Myanmar) about India’s attendance at the recently concluded summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) as guest of honour and the subsequent OIC resolution condemning India’s actions in Kashmir. How does one understand these opposing signals? India is invited and later condemned? The conversation also discusses the developing geopolitical situation in Afghanistan and its implications for India. Who is to benefit from the US withdrawal from Afg? Is the Taliban capable of power sharing or will it remain under the strong influence of Pakistan? Amb. Katju also discusses the Balakot air strikes and how they have fundamentally altered the escalation ladder between India and Pakistan.

Happymon Jacob speaks with Manoj Joshi (Senior Defence Journalist),Siddharth Vardarajan (Founding Editor, The Wire) and Kapil Kak (Retd. Air Vice Marshal) to understand the strikes carried by the Indian Air Force in Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan on a JeM training facility. The conversation tries to understand the official Indian and Pakistani responses to this operation. Why did the Indian govt. term it as ‘Non-Military Pre-Emptive’ action and what objectives did the Pakistani govt. achieve by denying the impact of the strike. The conversation further discusses whether India has altered the escalation ladder in South Asia by using air power and striking inside Pakistani territory? If yes, how will Pakistan respond? Will this strike stop Pakistan’s support to non-state actors or will it have the opposite effect?

Happymon Jacob speaks with Lt Gen (Dr) Prakash Menon (Author of The Strategy Trap: India and Pakistan under the Nuclear Shadow, Wisdom Tree, 2018), about some of the main themes in his book. The episode begins with a discussion on India’s defence organisation and the need for reforms. Jacob asks Lt Gen Menon whether India’s nuclear strategy and doctrine need to be reviewed and adapted. The discussion progresses toward India’s option for low-scale conventional strikes against Pakistan; Gen Menon says that such strikes have low political utility for India vis-à-vis altering Pakistan’s strategic behaviour. The episode closes with an engaging debate on India’s military strategy towards China

Happymon Jacob speaks with Mr Manish Tewari (Former Union Minister) about the political aftermath of the Pulwama terrorist attack. Mr Tewari comments on the response of the BJP led NDA government to the attacks and refutes charges of playing politics over the attack, levied on the Congress party. Mr Tewari argues that raising questions after any such attack is the constitutional role of the opposition and this should not be presented as being ‘anti-national’. Further, he responds to Pakistan’s requests for enough evidence to act against Jaish-E-Mohammed and comments on the political reasons of how such an attack took place

Happymon Jacob speaks with Siddharth Varadarajan (Founding Editor, The Wire), Col. Ajai Shukla (Defence Editor, Business Standard) and Moeed Yusuf (U.S. Institute of Peace) in order to analyse the Pulwama attack and to assess the menu of options India has, to respond. The conversation also discusses the indigenous nature of this attack, the degree to which it can be attributed to agents in Pakistan, the diplomatic and military options India has vis-à-vis Pakistan and the causes of rise in number of youths joining militancy in J and K as well as increasing hostilities between armed forces and civilians in the state. Can all this be attributed to the present govt.’s failed Pakistan as well as Kashmir policy? or is this a pre-election surprise by Imran Khan’s govt. for PM Modi?

Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks with Maj. Gen. Satbir Singh (Member, Indian Ex-Servicemen Movement) and Maj. Priyadarshi Chowdhury (National Coordinator/Spokesperson, Joint agitation of Kisans and Jawans) about the latest agitation by the ex-servicemen community about problems with the existing One Rank One Pension scheme, degradation of defense service conditions, reasons for considering armed forces as a unique profession requiring extra post-retirement benefits and drastically falling rates of new recruits