Top Traders Unplugged With Niels Kaastrup-larsen | Engaging Conversations With The Top Traders & Investors

In this episode Hari is joined by Alex Gurevich, author, PhD in mathematics and founder of HonTe Investments, to discuss how he values bonds differently to many investors today, how to build a balanced portfolio, the many ways to loose money when buying an option (even if you are "kinda" right) as well as how he makes decisions as a trader, how to manage stress and keep a healthy lifestyle as a hedge fund manager and what the future of the global financial markets may look like. ---- In this episode, we discuss: How different types of bonds are valuated The pattern in how many times the FED tends to move rates, once they begin Why Rate cycles are getting shorter (in time) Why Alex believes that the FED should not raise rates before reducing their balance sheet Alex playbook for the Ukrainian crisis: Oil could collapse to $40 and Rates could go back to zero How your performance can end up defining who you are (if you are not careful) The synchronisation of the central banks and how the future might look for th

Jerry Parker joins me in today’s episode to discuss trend following as a robust guide to the markets in a world of instability and insecurity. We also discuss the recent short squeeze in nickel which has led to an unprecidented response from the LME, how to develop a trend following system, and what to do if you miss a breakout trade. We dive into when to trade index-based products vs. single stocks, how to manage trailing stops, and Jerry's decision to stop doing trend following research and rounding off our conversation with interesting and somewhat provocative tweets from Jerry. ---- In this episode, we discuss: Trend following and volatility in relation to the current situation in Ukraine The recent short squeeze in nickel trading and the reaction from the LME Tips and tricks to grow as a trend follower How to develop a good trend following system How to manage trailing stops How Jerry managed his short Russian stock position What Jerry will focus on as he stops doing Trend Following Research ---- Follo

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Chris Schelling, Chief Investment Strategist at Venturi Private Wealth and author of the book “Better Than Alpha”, to discuss asset allocation and how assets are managed in the private space vs institutional space, about disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard, the evolution of the industry over the years, the role of liquidity in asset allocation, the use of Alpha and Beta in investment, what it takes to be a skilled manager and the risk of manager selection. ---- In this episode, we discuss: How are assets managed in the private space vs institutional space Biases in asset allocation and how to overcome them. Using Alpha, Beta and other investment strategies Due diligence and things to avoid in the process The risks of manager selection and what it takes to be a good manager. ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (You

Today Rob Carver joins me to discuss how the Trend Following world is reacting to the aweful situation in Ukraine and how it affects markets and volatility, discussing the moral aspects of trend following in times of crises and we take lots of questions from our community regarding how to handle parabolic market moves, if trend following is over-crowded, who we believe is the next David Harding, how to allocate to different speeds of Momentum/Trend Following as well as thoughts on rebalancing assets and portfolios and much more. ---- In this episode, we discuss: How the aweful situation in Ukraine affects trend following and volatility Rebalancing strategies within your portfolio The advantage of systematizing your trading When I sat down with the founds of AHL at Abbey Road Studios ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/

On today’s episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Alan Higgins, the CIO and Chief Market Strategise of Coutts UK, also known as the Queens Bank, to discuss sound ways to invest in today’s environment, Alan’s interest at an early age in how to earn a risk premium, being a 60/40 investor and how the strategy will evolve, asset management vs. wealth management, distressed debt investing, behavioural biases, inflation, equity and interest rates, as well as the Yale Approach finishing off with some book recommendations on asset allocation and investing. ---- In this episode, we discuss: What the 60/40 portfolio will look like in the next decade The surprise of markets ability to trend The value of Risk Mitigation, but how it’s not enough Insights to the inflationary period in the UK under Nigel Lawson Why this time feels different Lessons from the 1987 Crash ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptrad

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the power of Trend Following during periods of heightened uncertainty, Trend Following applied to the ESG space, how endogenous price shocks cause longer-term trends, the new Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report, shorter-term Trend Following versus longer-term, and how ‘buy the dip’ investors are likely unprepared for sustained underperformance in stocks. ---- In this episode, we discuss: Why now might be the best time to be invested in Trend Following strategies How systematic investing can be applied to the ESG space The cause of longer-term price trends The https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/trend-following-performance-report-january-2022/ (Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report) The best lookback period for Trend Following models The need to diversify away from the ‘buy the dip’ mentality ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraders

Alan Dunne is joined today by Elizabeth Burton to discuss managing a public fund versus a private fund, the challenges to those invested in the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, the current outlook for inflation, performing above expectations, how to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation, fixed income versus real assets, categorising asset classes effectively, the limits of mean variance optimisation, using historical perspectives as an input into current decision-making, difficulties in the manager selection process, and how to simplify complex ideas in order to communicate more efficiently. ---- In this episode, we discuss: The outlook for inflation Achieving high performance consistently How to re-allocate a portfolio accordingly Mean variance optimisation Whether this time is different Selecting the right manager Simplifying complexity for better understanding Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Trend Following versus Momentum strategies, the need to be humble about making economic forecasts, how Central Bank policies affect Trend Following performance, Cathie Wood and ARKK coming under pressure from the media, Trend Following on options, calculating a systems’ risk-to-stop, vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk, hard data versus stories, when to apply the ‘Moscow rules’. ---- In this episode, we discuss: How Trend Following differs to momentum Avoiding the need to make predictions The Federal Reserve and its effects on Trend Following strategies ARKK’s media scrutiny following recent poor performance The similarities between Trend Following and options How to calculate ‘risk-to-stop’ Qualifying new investors before accepting them as clients The “Moscow Rules" Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or

Alan Dunne is joined today by Sebastien Page to discuss how price shocks affect correlations, approaches to strategic asset allocation, how to position portfolios for the years ahead, the current outlook for equities their various sectors, investing in a rising interest rate environment, responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets, defining and achieving utility maximisation, the merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis, how to properly diversify a portfolio, the durability of treasury bonds, lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams, achieving a state of ‘flow’, and how to simplify complex financial topics. ---- In this episode, we discuss: Ever-changing market correlations Strategic asset allocation Responding to interest rate changes Achieving utility maximisation Mean variance analysis Portfolio diversification Treasury bonds High performance teams Simplifying complexity Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielska

Today, Alan Dunne joins me to discuss how the change of tone from central banks can affect markets globally, Trend Following in a rising interest rate environment, the case for and against including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio, how managed futures Trend Following can help investors throughout ever-changing markets, the future of the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, some takeaways from Alan’s conversation with Phil Huber on this week’s new Top Traders Unplugged Allocator Series, and why we might be entering a great period for Trend Following strategies. ---- In this episode, we discuss: How central bank signalling affects risk appetite around the world How Trend Following might perform in a rising interest rate environment Including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio How managed futures can help investor throughout ever-changing markets The viability of the 60 /40 portfolio going forward Why a new golden era for Trend Following might be emerging Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/

Alan Dunne is joined today by Phil Huber, in the first of our new Allocator Series, to discuss the education gap that needs to be filled regarding efficient capital allocation, the typical clients and types of portfolios that Phil deals with, adjusting portfolios to accommodate for changing market cycles, defining ‘alternative investments’, the extent to which a portfolio should be actively managed, traditional versus alternative investments, the challenges of manager selection, cultivating a behavioural edge as an allocator, and how to manage difficult conversations with clients. ---- In this episode, we discuss: Better education around capital allocation Allocating capital throughout various market cycles How to define an ‘alternative investment’ How actively we should manage a portfolio Traditional versus alternative investments The difficulties in the manager selection process Being a great behavioural investor as an allocator Difficult conversations with clients Advice for aspiring capital allocator

Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the importance of hanging on to your outlier winners, value investing versus trend following, the optimum number of entry & signals per trade, the need to redefine ‘safe assets’, Jerry & Richard Brennans’ thoughts on Howard Marks’ remarks about Trend Following, risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio, the unpredictability of endogenous outliers, and deconstructing the old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’. ---- In this episode, we discuss: Letting winners run and cutting losses early Using 1 entry signal and 1 exit signal per trade versus multiple signals Redefining what are typically known as ‘safe assets’ Howard Marks’ opinion on following price Achieving effective risk parity within a portfolio How endogenous outliers are hard to predict Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersun

Hari Krishnan is joined today by Cem Karsan, to discuss feedback loops across different markets, the decision to manage outside money, how institutions make trading decisions, the global macro effects from COVID-19, the importance of dealer flows in the markets, the feedback loop between options and their underlying assets, and approaches to delta hedging. In this episode, we discuss: How market behaviour is often intertwined Why Cem chose to manage outside capital The thinking behind institutional market moves How the global pandemic affected markets Dealer flows Feedback loops Delta hedging Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Hari on https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 (Twitter). Follow Cem on https://twitter.com/jam_croissant (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how Federal Reserve policy affects the Trend Following environment, the benefits of scaling into and out of positions, Howard Marks’ opinion on the value of price, the factors that drive commodity prices, why typical inflation-hedges may not be as reliable as their reputation implies, how Trend Following is the perfect way to complete your portfolio, and the differences between a ‘trend chaser’ and a trend follower. In this episode, we discuss: Central bank policies and their effects on Trend Following performance The benefits of having multiple entries and exits across different timeframes Howard Marks’ recent thoughts on trading price action only The status of the commodity markets Hedges against inflation Creating the perfect portfolio using Trend Following Trend Following versus ‘trend chasing’ Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (You

Hari Krishnan is joined today by David Orrell, to discuss the problems with using physics analogies on financial markets, the cause and effects of price impacts, David’s new book: ‘Money, Magic, and How to Dismantle a Financial Bomb’, the magical properties of money, how sentiment drives price although it is so unpredictable in nature, the similarities between weather forecasting and economics, the sustainability of money creation by central banks, and some thoughts on cognitive interference. In this episode, we discuss: How quantum physics relates to financial markets The mechanics behind price impacts David’s new book, coming out soon The magical characteristics of money The power and unpredictability of sentiment Weather and how it relates to financial markets Central bank money creation and how effective it can be Cognitive interference Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (You

Richard Brennan joins us this week to discuss how to spot potential outlier trades before they occur, the power of simple trading rules over complexity, why endogenous events move markets 90% of the time and news events are behind only 10% of large market moves, how Trend Following models safely reduce risk exposure automatically as drawdowns increase, how to approach correlated markets in your portfolio, how to achieve diversification with limited capital, the Efficient Market Hypothesis versus Adaptive Market Hypothesis, and the differences between Trend Following and ‘Trend Trading’. In this episode, we discuss: Spotting patterns among previous outliers Simplicity over complexity How little the news really moves markets Professional Trend Following versus 'Trend Trading' The ability of Trend Following models to automatically reduce open risk during drawdowns Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user

Hari Krishnan is joined today by Co-Founder & Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, to discuss how news drive price action, and some of the science behind the large price movements, how we should think about adapting to changing dynamics such as correlations, Jean-Philippe’s background in physics and journey into finance, the effectiveness of the Bloomberg terminal, using dimensional analysis for research purposes, the inelastic market hypothesis, differentiating yourself as a Trend Follower, and the connection between volatility strategies and high frequency data. In this episode, we discuss: The extent to which news drives price action How to look at ever-changing market dynamics, such as correlations Jean-Philippe's journey into finance The reliability of the Bloomberg terminal Dimensional analysis The inelastic market hypothesis Standing out in the Systematic Investor space Volatility strategies and if they have any connection to high-frequency data Follow Niels on https://

Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the different ways that Trend Following is perceived by investors, the optimum amount of positions to trade at once, rating the riskiness of various investment strategies, Trend Following on the VIX, suitable risk amounts per market, what to do with the free cash in your futures account, if Trend Followers pyramid positions, trading CFDs and dealing with transaction costs, and the best lookback period when measuring correlations. In this episode, we discuss: The perception of Trend Following among various types of investors How many positions to trade at once The ‘riskiness’ of various investment strategies Combining Trend Following and Volatility strategies Risk-per-futures contract How much cash to keep on the sidelines and what to do with it Pyramiding positions CFD trading and navigating commissions Measuring correlations effectively Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https

Hari Krishnan is joined today by Dave Dredge, to discuss how long-volatility strategies can improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the concept of ‘participate and protect’, the importance of understanding why compounding is the ultimate goal, the ‘always good weather’ portfolio, trading Bitcoin volatility, being a ‘value buyer’ of volatility, mechanisms for taking profits, and how to size portfolio allocations properly. In this episode, we discuss: How to improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio Dave’s concept of ‘participate and protect’ The importance of compounding Dave’s ‘always good weather’ portfolio Long-volatility Bitcoin strategies Value investing in the volatility space Methods for taking profits Sizing portfolio allocations Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Hari on https://twitter.co

Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss what the future could look like without central bank liquidity being pumped into the markets, macro versus quantitative trading approaches, how to avoid crowded strategies, some post analysis of a trend following research paper, whether CTAs are being gamed by other participants, analysing the various methods of price trend measurements, what may have caused a more difficult trading environment for Trend Following strategies in the 2010s, and the economic factors that lead to great periods for Trend Following. In this episode, we discuss: What markets could look like without Federal Reserve liquidity injections Macro versus quantitative approaches Avoiding crowded strategies What it was like to trade through 2018 How market participants may try to game Trend Followers Measuring the strength of price trends Reviewing the performance of Trend Following during the 2010s Which economic factors could drive strong Trend Following performance Check out our series on Volatility h