Top Traders Unplugged With Niels Kaastrup-larsen | Engaging Conversations With The Top Traders & Investors

Together with Alan Dunne, we delve into the shifting landscape of systematic investing, highlighting the growing use of quant based strategies as well as AI and machine learning in portfolio management. The discussion also emphasizes the significant impact of concentration within the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs now predicting that this could lead to lower returns for traditional equity investments in the coming decade. We explore various economic themes, and note the challenges facing Europe compared to the optimism in the US markets. We also reflect on the recent elections and their implications for future economic policies. The conversation wraps up with insights on trend following strategies and how they can enhance portfolio diversification, particularly in a climate of rising yields and market volatility.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU web

Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and Fellow at the Manhattan Institute joins Alan Dunne in this episode to explore the bond market outlook and broader economic trends. They delve into an influential paper Steve co-authored with Nouriel Roubini on Activist Treasury Issuance, examining how Treasury actions may have countered some of the Fed's monetary tightening this year. Steve shares his insights on the economy's current state, his view that the Fed may have erred with its recent 50 basis point cut, and how the upcoming election could shape economic policy. While much focus has been on potential tariff impacts under a Trump administration, Steve highlights the possible benefits of supply-side measures. The conversation also covers the drivers behind the rise in bond yields since the Fed’s rate cut and the medium-term outlook for fiscal policy and bonds.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool----

In this week’s episode, Andrew Beer joins Alan Dunne to dive into the evolution of hedge funds, mutual funds, and ETFs within the managed futures space. Andrew give his perspective on the architecture of the CTA industry from the perspective of asset raising and the role that a diverse investor base plays in shaping product offerings within the sector. The conversation explores how liquid alternative investments compare with traditional hedge funds, examining what recent performance trends reveal about each. They also discuss the influence of narrative in CTA selection and analyse the resurgence of portable alpha and the growing interest in return stacking strategies, inspired by a recent Bloomberg article.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best

Jason Furman, Professor of Economics at Harvard and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to share his thoughts on the current economic outlook. They explore the recent improvement in the inflation data, whether the Fed is justified in claiming victory in its inflation fight and the likely trajectory for inflation over the next year. On monetary policy, Jason expects further rate cuts from the Fed this year but is sceptical about how much additional easing we may see next year. That ‘s partially because he sees a higher neutral policy rate and partly because high fiscal deficits looks set to remain a feature of the next administration. Looking further ahead Jason offers his thoughts on the longer term growth outlook, the likelihood of an AI-led productivity boom, the pros and cons of active industrial policy and whether persistent fiscal deficits might eventually lead to a debt crisis. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a S

Today, we delve into the nuances of systematic investing with Rob Carver, focusing on the concept of replication in trend-following strategies. The discussion contrasts different approaches to replication, highlighting the potential pitfalls of return-based methods that attempt to mimic established indices. We emphasize that simply increasing the number of markets in a portfolio may not lead to better diversification, as it could ultimately expose investors to similar risk factors. We also explore the implications of a recent paper from Newfound Research, which uses random data to challenge traditional views on replication effectiveness. With insights on factors influencing CTA performance and the importance of understanding true diversification, this conversation offers valuable perspectives for both investors and practitioners in the systematic trading space.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels

In his first podcast episode ever, Bill Eckhardt emphasizes that successful trading hinges more on risk control than on predicting market movements, a theme that resonates throughout his conversation with Moritz Siebert and Rob Sorrentino. The episode explores Eckhardt's journey from the renowned Turtle trading experiment to his current systematic trading strategies at Eckhardt Trading Company. The conversation provides insights into the evolution of trading strategies, the importance of maintaining emotional discipline, and the necessity of adapting to changing market conditions. The discussion also delves into the challenges of overfitting in trading models and the significant role that robust statistical methods play in managing risk. With anecdotes about the unique characteristics of traders and the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio, this episode offers a fascinating look into the mind of a trading legend and the principles that guide his enduring success.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Ou

Join Katy and I as we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following in the context of changing interest rates. We cover how trend-following strategies can be a valuable addition to investment portfolios, especially in high-rate environments where traditional fixed income may offer diminished diversification benefits. Katy shares insights from her latest paper, which explores the performance of trend-following strategies during various economic crises, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in turbulent markets. The conversation also touches on the recent Nobel Prize buzz surrounding MIT and its implications for innovation in finance, as well as review the latest quarterly insights from Quantica. As we navigate through market trends, you are encouraged to consider how a well-allocated trend-following strategy can enhance portfolio resilience amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio

Alan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China’s active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and how the upcoming US election—particularly a potential Trump victory—could be highly significant for US- China relations and impact bond markets and the US dollar. Louis also gives his take on the structural challenges facing France and Europe, and whether we can expect a recovery in productivity.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE

This episode dives deep into the intricacies of trend following strategies and their connection to complex adaptive systems. Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen explore how these systems respond to market signals and the importance of boundaries in shaping investor behavior. They discuss the challenges faced by trend followers in the current market environment, particularly in October, where many strategies have encountered difficulties. The conversation touches on significant topics such as risk management, diversification, and the role of outliers in financial markets, emphasizing that these seemingly anomalous events are actually a natural part of the market's fabric. With insights drawn from recent literature, including works by John Holland and Jeffrey West, the episode highlights the necessity of adapting to evolving market signals and the dynamic interplay between agents within these complex systems.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using t

Our guest on this episode is Richard Holden, economics professor at the University of New South Wales Sydney author of a new book: Money in the 21st Century: Cheap, Mobile and Digital. Richard explains why the prospect of a private digital currency run by a company like Amazon or Google is a real possibility and why that would represent an enormous transfer of power from democratic governments to a private company. He also talks about China’s digital currency, its vast user base in China and how it even has users in Australia. Richard believes the US should proactively head off the threat from these digital competitors by creating ‘fedcoin’ - a digital currency managed by the Federal Reserve. He believes it could be done with little disruption to consumers and could bring enormous benefits. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – mos

Today we tackle the most important questions arising from the evolving landscape of systematic investing, focusing on the changing dynamics of asset allocation in the current market environment. Nick Baltas and Niels discuss the implications of rising interest rates and inflation on traditional 60/40 portfolios, questioning whether this approach remains valid. We explore the potential benefits of incorporating trend-following strategies, especially in light of recent market volatility. The conversation includes insights on risk management and the importance of understanding correlation, particularly during downturns. With a blend of empirical analysis and practical advice, the episode touches on the key question of how much investors should allocate to trend-following strategies from a different perspective and encourages listeners to rethink their investment strategies and consider more adaptive approaches to asset allocation.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Po

Amy Flikerski, Head of External Portfolio Management at CPP Investments - the C$600bn Canadian state pension fund - joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss allocating capital to emerging and established hedge funds. They delve into the evolution of the hedge fund industry from the perspective of an allocator and particularly how the growth of the large multi-manager multi-strats has impacted hedge fund allocating. Amy discusses the role of the External Manager Allocations in the context of CPP Investment’s overall portfolio and some of the key considerations from a top down and bottom up perspective when the portfolio is constructed. Amy also highlights how CPP Investments evaluates emerging managers, what makes a great hedge fund manager and also offers valuable advice for hedge fund managers when engaging with allocators. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube o

In this week’s episode, Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to discuss the interplay between market flows and global macro developments as we enter a pivotal time of year for markets. They explore the potentially favourable setup for equities in the coming weeks, driven by flow dynamics and dealer positioning, while considering how recent policy moves in China could support the near-term bullish outlook. As the U.S. election approaches, Cem outlines how different outcomes could impact policy, the economy, and geopolitics—ultimately shaping the post-election market landscape. Despite recent U.S. inflation data showing lower prints, Karsan reaffirms his view of a structurally inflationary period ahead and shares key trades that could capitalize on this outlook in the current market environment.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s

In this episode, I’m joined by Alan Dunne and Kevin Coldiron, a co-author of "The Rise of Carry", for an in-depth discussion on the recent unwinding of the Yen carry trade and a broader exploration of how carry trades are becoming more embedded in both our financial decisions and everyday lives. We revisit key insights Kevin took from his book, published in 2019, and explore where things have unfolded differently than anticipated. Kevin also breaks down how the S&P 500 might be central to the current carry regime and offers thoughts on how we could assess the risk of a ‘deflation shock’ or ‘carry crash.’ We round out the conversation by considering the future of carry and the role geopolitics might play in shaping its course.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ult

Together with Mark Rzepczynski we dive deep into the outlook for trend following and discuss what may drive trends in the coming years. We analyze the role that the Fed plays in the rise of carry trading and we discuss how the so-called KuU framework can be used for in your strategy. We also discuss the use of AI when it comes to forecasting and building models and why systematic managers should be better at explaining what they do, how to use the 3 C’s to better understand markets, the pros and cons of buying an index and more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Baromete

This week you are in for a real treat, as Adam Rozencwajg rejoins Cem Karsan and me for a deep dive into the latest developments in the Commodity markets. It's been 15 months since Adam last appeared on the show, and he's back to share his updated perspectives on the highly anticipated next Commodity Super Cycle. Adam even unveils a fascinating and little-known fact about what often coincides with the start of a Super Cycle. We also take a closer look at key markets like Gold, Copper, and the entire Energy Complex—topics at the heart of debates surrounding the US Dollar and the Green Transition. Packed with fresh insights and thought-provoking discussions, we hope you will enjoy this conversation.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investmen

In this episode, Alan Dunne and I explore Mario Draghi's latest vision for Europe and discuss an insightful interview with Kenneth Rogoff, titled "We Will See More Spikes in Inflation," which covers key macroeconomic issues. We also explore the recent Goldman Sachs reports, highlighted by the Financial Times, showing significant outflows from multi-strategy funds. Alan shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and why he believes we may witness more “flash crashes and extreme market moves” in the near future. Finally, we dig into two articles by Cliff Asness—"The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and "In Praise of High-Volatility Alternatives"—which challenge traditional thinking on market efficiency and make a compelling case for considering higher volatility versions of strategies like Trend Following over their low-volatility cousins.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter,

Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share

Rob Carver is back this week to discuss the importance of being able to detach yourself from the markets and taking “real” breaks from time to time and we also hear from Rob what it is like to let his systematic trading system run by itself whilst he enjoys a long summer holiday. We also discuss the underlying theory of macro momentum and how you can apply it to your own system, how he targets volatility in his portfolio and why Rob does not like using stop-losses to exit trades. We also touch on whether it’s a good idea for Trump to create a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, how ETFs really work and what they can bring to your portfolio, and whether or not buying one of the new CTA replication products is really the same as buying the underlying CTA index based on a recent paper from Transtrend.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – m

Michael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital and Author of the Capital Wars Substack, returns in this episode to speak with Alan Dunne about the liquidity cycle’s influence on global markets. Michael outlines how he sees rising liquidity growth providing a favourable backdrop for risky assets and that the conventional narrative that the Fed has been tightening liquidity via quantitative tightening is misplaced. They discuss how the requirement to refinance $70 trillion in debt every year, and the prospect of double digit growth in debt, will inevitably lead to monetary inflation with profound implications for assets like gold and equities. In contrast, although tactical duration issuance by the US Treasury has supported US Treasuries the longer term outlook is less favourable. The conversation also touches on global FX markets, the recent unwinding of the JPY carry trade, and Michael’s perspective on a possible tacit agreement to weaken the US dollar, which could have far-reaching consequences for