Top Traders Unplugged With Niels Kaastrup-larsen | Engaging Conversations With The Top Traders & Investors

On today’s episode, Hari Krishnan is joined today by Benn Eifert, to discuss running a volatility fund, the benefits that Benn gets from using Twitter, how to effectively serve clients as a volatility trader, the drawbacks of hedging via ETFs, monitoring market flows, the popularity of short-dated options, implied volatility versus realised volatility, how correlations change over time, balancing family-life with managing a fund, and the new normalisation of working from home. In this episode, we discuss: A behind the scenes look at running a volatility fund How to use Twitter as an investor Bringing value to clients as a volatility trader Hedging via ETFs Market flows Options Implied volatility Finding a good work & life balance Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

Today we continue our special Part 2 end-of-year episode featuring all co-hosts of the show, together at the same time, to discuss why you should be invested in numerous different markets, why more Trend Following firms should be trading single stocks, the optimum amount of systems to run at the same time, whether diversifying across markets or diversifying across systems is more important, some thoughts on positive skew, and defining outliers. We also review how 2021 went for each us, including our best and worst markets to trade, the lessons we learned, and the biggest surprises. In this episode, we discuss: The reasons for trading different markets Why Trend Following firms should trade single stocks The optimum amount of systems to run at the same time Diversification across markets versus across systems Skewness How to define outliers Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (

“Deferred gratification must be a master principle. In a world where people are focused on short-term pleasures, it becomes an enormous competitive advantage if you can shift to deferred gratification.”What if there was one or two things that, above all, the best investors of all time have in common? Would you be interested to know what this is? Our special guest today, William Green, has written about this in his new book, called ‘Richer, Wiser, Happier’, where he draws upon his past interviews with over forty of the most successful investors of all time, to find out some of the ingredients that made them stand out. These elite group include Sir John Templeton, Charlie Munger, Howard Marks, Jack Bogle, Ed Thorp, and Joel Greenblatt. Join us as we uncover what it takes to be a truly successful investor, the benefits of deferred gratification, why being humble can lead to solid long-term returns, and the beauty of combining ‘man and machine’ to create a profitable, systematic approach to the markets. Thank y

We have a special end-of-year episode for you today, featuring all of us together for the first time, to discuss why we are so passionate about Trend Following, the case for being a Trend Following purist, how to stay perfectly diversified, the art & perils of hunting outliers, the outlook for Trend Following performance, when and how to manually override a trading system, how to stay prepared for unexpected volatility events, and how to know if adjustments to a trading system are going to result in improved performance. In this episode, we discuss: Some of the reasons for being a systematic investor The case for Trend Following as the only strategy in your portfolio Tips for effective diversification Why you should be Hunting Outliers How Trend Following performance might look like in the future If and when you should override your trading rules Staying ready for unexpected shocks in the markets Gauging the effectiveness of adjustments to a system Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitt

“The mutual fund is coming up to a 100 years old, if you count the first US mutual fund, but in the past 50 years it’s been all about the index fund. So the reason why I started covering it so much at the FT is because I felt it was under-covered in comparison to some of the more titanic hedge fund managers.”Passive & quantitative investing has grown exponentially over the years and is now responsible for trillions of dollars of investors’ capital.  How has this affected the world of active money-management, and what does the rise of passive investing mean for the investment world overall? Well, it turns out that renown Financial Times Global Finance correspondent, Robin Wigglesworth, has a great new book out about passive investing called ‘Trillions’, and I couldn’t resist the temptation to invite him on to the show to talk about the book, and other subjects related to investing and trading. Enjoy this conversation as we cover how the financial crisis of 2008 affected investors' relat

Today we’re joined by special guest, Hari Krishnan, to discuss the advantages and drawbacks of machine learning-based trading strategies, successful funds that utilizes machine learning investment techniques, defining machine learning and comparing it with artificial intelligence, how Trend Following can best integrated with machine learning, the history of machine learning in the investment world, and we also answer some of your questions, such as how to select signals for a smaller trading account. In this episode, we discuss: The reasons for and against machine learning trading strategies If any funds have successfully implemented machine learning What defines machine learning The history behind machine learning-based trading styles How to manage smaller trading accounts, when it comes to signal selection How to time the entry into trend following funds If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail (here). Check out our series on Volatil

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how to approach position-sizing and risk-per-trade, mean reversion trading strategies, how to invest in globally diversified systematic Trend Following CTAs, ‘buying the dip’ in the S&P 500, static and dynamic optimisation when trading smaller accounts, and the inclusion of more obscure markets into a Trend Following system. In this episode, we discuss: How to effectively approach position-sizing Some methods for investing in Trend Following CTAs If 'buying the dip' in the S&P 500 is a good strategy Portfolio optimisation Trading lesser-known markets Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Rob on https://twitter.com/InvestingIdiocy (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

"When the market turns and goes negative, strategies like Trend Following tend to do really well. They provide that hedge. So it’s completely inappropriate to compare Trend Following to a long equity portfolio, because Trend Following has different properties - it has hedging properties." - Cam HarveyHow should you protect your portfolio against large losses, but without giving up its upside potential? To answer this question, and many more, I invited back professor of finance at Duke University, Campbell Harvey to the show. I also thought it would be fitting if Rob Carver, could also join us, considering Rob and Cam used to work together at Man AHL. Enjoy the show as we discuss how to navigate a crisis in the markets, and what to expect in terms of the global outlook for investing. Thank you for listening and please welcome to the show, our guest, Campbell Harvey. In This Episode, You’ll Learn: How to manage a portfolio through a crisis The motivation behind writing his new book Various m

Richard Brennan returns today to discuss the misconception of volatility as risk, thoughts on the various measures of risk, drawdowns as an opportunity ‘buy the dip’ in Trend Following strategies, how Richard thinks about risk, the relationship between volatility and risk, and the differences between convergent and divergent traders. In this episode, we discuss: Why volatility might not always mean that a model is risky The best way to measure true risk How to 'buy the dip' What Richard thinks about risk The relationship between volatility and risk Convergent versus divergent trading Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Richard on https://twitter.com/@RichB118 (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

'When you look into history, so-called derivative investment products that you think of as being recent, actually go back to 2400 BCE, in various forms. Call options go back to 600 BCE at least. In the 18th century BCE there were personal loans, as well as a liquid secondary market for these promissory notes. So what we think of as new inventions are actually very old.' - Steve FoersterIf we could gather all of the famous investing pioneers from world history into one room and ask them to build the perfect portfolio, what would it look like?  Well Steve Foerster and his co-author (and previous guest on the show) Andrew Lo, set out to do just that, with their new book called 'In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio'. I thought I'd invite Steve onto the show to discuss his new book, go through some of the 'golden threads' of investing that he came across, his journey in the world of finance, and of course, get his opinion on how close Trend Following is to 'the Perfect Portfolio'. Thank you for lis

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how markets will react to the likely upcoming tapering policies of central banks around the world, how Trend Followers overcome uncertainty, the reasons for and against overriding trading models, the historically optimum balance between bonds, stocks, and Trend Following, how trading non-correlated assets usually results in profitable long-term performance, and why longer-term trading systems tend to achieve the highest percentage of winning trades. In this episode, we discuss: Overcoming the uncertainty in markets When to override your system, if ever Balancing between difference asset classes The need to trade non-correlated assets Why longer-term systems achieve higher win percentages Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczyns

Jason Buck is joined today by Zed Francis to discuss the benefits of adding volatility strategies to your portfolio, achieving a negative a correlation to equities during market downturns, what Zed calls the ‘3 trading levers’, profiting from institutional volatility players, problems with some long-volatility strategies, when a discretionary approach is needed, how to adjust a portfolio if volatility is persisting, some thoughts on the VIX ETF, helping clients to achieve capital efficient accounts, maintaining liquidity for rebalancing during a selloff, and the deeper insight into the global macro landscape that being a volatility expert gives you. In this episode, we discuss: The benefits of volatility strategies to a portfolio How to profit from large stock market selloffs Some of Zed Francis’s unique approaches to volatility trading Profiting from institutional volatility traders When to apply a discretionary approach The VIX ETF Helping clients to be cash efficient in their portfolios The need for liquid

Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss trading single stocks while maintaining a systematic approach, the benefits of trading a broad universe of assets, how investors naturally gravitate toward strategies with lesser returns, but hidden risks, why you need volatility in order to gain maximum returns, what to do with dividends as a Trend Follower, and diversifying Trend Following models versus diversifying look-back periods. In this episode, we discuss: A systematic approach to trading single stocks Why you should trade a broad universe of assets Why the best thing to do is often the hardest thing to do as investors Why volatility is our friend, especially when it's directional How to manage dividends as a Trend Following trader The best methods of diversification Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jer

Special guest, Bastian Bolesta, joins Jason Buck today to discuss why volatility strategies should be added to our portfolios, how to keep improving as a trader while not over-optimising your systems, how recent large equity selloffs have affected Bastian’s approach to the markets, the average duration of his long volatility trades, how to weight recent data versus long-term data, trading VIX contracts intra-day, shorter-term Trend Following, momentum trading, mean-reversion strategies, and the cash efficiency of intraday models. In this episode, we discuss: Why we should be invested in volatility strategies Improving over time but not over-tinkering How much markets may have changed in recent years The average duration of volatility trades Recent data versus long-term data Shorter-term Trend Following The benefits of cash-efficiency within intraday models Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/topt

We’re joined by Hari Krishnan today, to discuss the ways in which Volatility strategies can complement Trend Following as a source of portfolio protection, how to manage expectations of investors, some experiences and thoughts from the large volatility events of 2018 and 2020, how to best protect yourself from large market selloffs, how to allocate between Trend Following and Volatility across different timeframes, and the possible effects of sustained inflation may have on volatility strategies. In this episode, we discuss: Complementing Trend Following portfolios with Volatility strategies Maintaining composure during different market environments The sharp selloffs of 2018 and 2020 Sound approaches for re-allocating money at appropriate times The resilience of Trend Following Volatility strategies during long periods of sustained inflation If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail (here). Check out our series on Volatility https://ww

In today’s episode, Jason Buck is joined by Stefan Wintner of https://dunncapital.com/ (DUNN Capital), to discuss volatility as an asset class, the evolution of the VIX from its inception until now, some of the mechanics behind the VIX, the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500, some thoughts on ‘volatility relative-value’ trading, the reliability of the VVIX, building and running models during different market environments, thoughts on kurtosis and skew, and volatility as a necessary component for a large Trend Following firm.  In this episode, we discuss: Volatility as an asset class of its own The journey of the VIX from its early days until now Analysing the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500 What’s known as volatility relative-value trading The usefulness of the VVIX Operating models during different market and economic environments Kurtosis and skew The need for Volatility strategies as part of a diversified investment portfolio Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptrader

Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the perception of cryptocurrencies since the new Bitcoin futures ETF was launched, scaling into and out of positions, the possibility of a synthetic Bitcoin supply resulting from the new futures ETF, how to approach climate change and ESG investing as a Trend Follower, ideas for selecting which markets to trade, the benefits and drawbacks of trading single stocks, and how to embrace a creative mindset. In this episode, we discuss: The new credibility of cryptocurrencies Scaling into positions using various methods ESG investing as a Trend Following investor How to select the optimum markets to trade Trading single stocks Embracing creativity as a systematic investor Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Rob on https://twitter.com/InvestingIdiocy (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Today Jason Buck is joined by Noel Smith in the second of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of ensemble investing, the predictability of market volatility, how certain market environments fool investors into thinking they are better than they really are, allocating between different strategies during different market environments, why nothing beats having ‘skin in the game’, balancing judgement calls versus algorithmic calls, pairs-trading VIX & bonds, determining when an asset is cheap or overpriced, and some thoughts on what might happen if markets enter a ‘stagflationary’ environment. In this episode, we discuss: Ensemble investing and its benefits Whether market volatility can be predicted ahead of time The ways in which the markets can catch investors off-guard ‘Dialling’ into and out of strategies How Noel’s experience in prop trading and pit trading has helped him today Finding the balance between judgement calls and algorithmic signals Noel’s VIX and bonds pai

This week, Richard Brennan joins us on the show to discuss how people can benefit from the effects of compounding while others end up a paying a price for it. We also cover some thoughts on ‘path dependency,' why those invested in stocks should diversify using Trend Following strategies, why stable returns can only be correctly judged over long time periods, how to analyse fund performance without being influenced by the effects of compounding, some thoughts on what is known as ‘geometric returns’, and we explain the term ‘ergodicity’. In this episode, we discuss: How to stay on the right side of the effects of compounding How many strategies can be limited by the make-up of their previous versions The profitable & negative correlation of Trend Following to equities when stocks are falling The need to zoom-out when judging performance The terms 'ergodicity' and 'path dependency' Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), h

Today Jason Buck is joined by Hari Krishnan in the first of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of adding volatility strategies to your portfolio, why it can pay to avoid hedging when the crowd is already doing so, explaining the 'Put slingshot', how markets are different today from decades ago, protection against tail-risk, the psychology behind large markets sell-offs, and some thoughts on the effects of leverage on the markets. In this episode, we discuss: The benefits of tail-risk hedges / adding volatility hedges to your portfolio The importance of avoiding group think (in hedging) Some thoughts on what is known as the ‘Put slingshot’ The new nature of stock market movements The repricing of risk during fast downturns Tail-risk protection versus Trend Following How tail-risk protection can complement an existing allocation to Trend Following Some of the psychology and mechanisms behind large and sharp market moves How positioning and leverage end up creating challenging mark