Top Traders Unplugged With Niels Kaastrup-larsen | Engaging Conversations With The Top Traders & Investors

Special guest Eric Crittenden returns to the show today to discuss the fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to begin tightening fiscal policy, Eric’s last appearance on the show which was at the March 2020 stock market bottom, different speeds of Trend Following, why stable returns doesn’t always equate to low risk, the difficulty in being comfortable with doing the opposite of what we’re wired to do, how managed futures can help investor’s portfolios, negative interest rates and flight out of fixed income, what could Trend Following bring to the crypto space, and changing the narrative around Trend Following. In this episode, we discuss: The misconceptions around the safety & profitability of a typical 60/40 portfolio The recent Federal Reserve decision to tighten fiscal policy Eric's last appearance on the show, which was at the exact bottom of the 2020 market crash The varying speeds of Trend Following Why low-volatility returns may not mean that a strategy is

'The typical pie-chart of diversification ends up being all long-GDP assets, which means these are going to do well in a risk-on environment, when we’re awash with liquidity. The problem is, when we see a sell off or a liquidity event like March 2020, we see the correlations of an ‘uncorrelated’ pie chart go to 1, which means that they all sell off at the same time.' - Jason BuckWhat happens when an unexpected major event occurs and all of your supposedly diversified investments suddenly become correlated, before heading sharply to the downside?  Jason Buck and his partner at Mutiny Fund have been thinking about this question for a long-time, and have created a portfolio designed to protect against these ‘Black Swan’, high-volatility events.  You may have seen Jason Buck alongside another volatility-expert (and previous guest of Top Traders Unplugged) Chris Cole on Real Vision, or listened to his ‘Pirates of Finance’ podcast with co-host Corey Hoffstein (another previous guest of Top

Rob Carver is on the show with us today to discuss why Elon Musk & the Chinese government might be proving that Bitcoin may not be as decentralised as first assumed, whether you should adjust your system according to the instrument being traded, some processes for reinvesting profits into your portfolio over time, thoughts on position sizing, different ways of defending against inflation, if short-term Trend Following may actually be as good as long-term Trend Following, and the sweet spot for number of different futures contracts a good system should trade. In this episode, we discuss: If Bitcoin is really as decentralised as it's reputed to be Adjusting your system on an individual trade basis What to do with your trading profits Defending against inflation Short-term Trend Following versus long-term Trend Following Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the htt

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss China’s move to ban Bitcoin trading, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of research into a new central bank digital currency, some of the issues around inflation and how it might affect trading, the psychology of drawdowns and the time in between new highs, how inflation can distort price signals, the recent rise of the ‘Misery Index’, Michael Burry’s huge bet against Tesla, the importance of exits in Trend Following strategies, and matching the right ‘Operation Tempo’ for your trading personality. In this episode, we discuss: China's recent banning of Bitcoin trading and mining The Federal Reserve's announcement of a possible new digital currency Inflation and its effects on trading The psychology around drawdowns Price signals and how they can be distorted by inflation Matching what Mark terms as 'Operation Tempo' with your personality Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://w

Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the benefits of prioritising price over other factors, navigating a high-inflationary environment, how bad markets for average investors can often be great for Trend Followers, how public awareness of a market uptrend can often precede large price drops, the potential drawbacks of trying to standout too much as a money-manager, how classical Trend Following is an increasing rarity in the CTA space, the benefits of investing in Trend Following via a proven manager, the similarities between amateur golfers and traders, the point at which a trend has been ‘confirmed’, and conquering the fear of losses. In this episode, we discuss: Why you should prioritise price over any other form of data How bad markets for the average investor is often lucrative for Trend Followers How mainstream attention to market trends usually means they're about to end Why money managers shouldn't always try to stand out too much The increasing rarity of classical Trend Following CTAs How to embrace

Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting, the possible raise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, today’s great environment for Trend Following, the unpredictable nature of the markets and future trends, decentralised finance, increasing ESG requirements in the investment industry, the meteoric rise of Lumber prices, new and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME, thoughts on Ethereum and Ethereum futures, and the possible advantages of being in a Trend Follower in the cryptocurrency space versus the buy & hold speculators. In this episode, we discuss: Berkshire Hathaways's recent annual general meeting The likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates How to overcome the unpredictable nature of markets Thoughts on De-Fi Increasing sustainability requirements of the investment industry The newer, smaller futures contracts being listed on the CME Trend Following on cryptocurrencies Follow Niels on https://twitter.co

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss the process of selecting single stocks for a Trend Following system, Rob’s holy trinity of security selection, the JP Morgan-backed fund making huge bets, via options, on the market remaining quiet, the knock-on effects from funds who make large, risky bets, the sweet-spot for average holding periods in a Trend Following system, ‘caveman-style’ Trend Following versus scaling in and out of positions, how to hedge against inflation, how Trend Following historically has performed really well in rising interest-rate environments, and thoughts on Tesla’s recent earnings, a lot of which were from government subsidies and selling bitcoin. In this episode, we discuss: Which stocks to select for a profitable Trend Following system Rob's 'Holy Trinity' for selecting securities The ripple effects of large funds who make large and risky bets The most profitable holding periods in Trend Following systems 'Caveman-style' Trend Following How to hedge against inflation Trend F

Today, Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show to discuss how Trend Following allows investors to own more risky assets, Systematic Global Macro versus Trend Following, the process of how an investor digests new information, classical Trend Following versus modern Trend Following with AI methods, whether rock-star hedge funds such as ARK Invest can end up being too greedy when seeking AUM, why it can be a good idea to avoid timing the different exposures of your portfolio as much as possible, some of the possible reasons behind Dunn Capital’s successful near 50-year track record, and thoughts on position-sizing in relation to historic volatility. In this episode, we discuss: How a Trend Following approach allows safer access to risky markets The differences between Systematic Trading based on macro data versus based on price-only How a top trader should efficiently process new data Modern AI-based Trend Following versus classical Trend Following Whether the biggest hedge funds in the world fall victim of being t

Jerry Parker returns to the show today to discuss the how investments can often turn into religions, the recent Coinbase IPO, using historical volatility for position sizing, comparing long-term trend following to Buy & Hold, ‘trend strength’ signals, how much of a portfolio should be allocated to Trend Following strategies, mean-reversion systems versus Trend Following systems, and thoughts on finding or adding to new positions. In this episode, we discuss: The perils of becoming 'religious' about our investments Coinbase's recent stock market listing Position sizing using historical volatility Buy & Hold versus Trend Following over long-term look back periods Mean Reversion trading versus Trend-based trading The infamous https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer) Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive

Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the little-known hedge fund Archegos, who recently blew up and cost billions of dollars for large institutions such as Credit Suisse and Nomura. We also discuss whether cracks are beginning to show in the stock market, the bull market in commodities, opportunities for investing in Chinese commodity markets, the risks of trading in emerging markets, how to trade cryptocurrency futures, and combining Trend Following strategies with none-correlated strategies in the same system. In this episode, we discuss: Over-leveraged hedge funds showing little regard for risk What stage of the bull market in stocks we might be in The rise in commodity prices Trading in the Chinese commodity markets The possible risks of trading in emerging markets Crypto futures and how they differ from more traditional futures markets Trend Following combined with other investment strategies for a complete portfolio call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (

Jerry Parker is back on the show with us today to discuss why short positions are beneficial to a profitable trading strategy, the importance of not over-tweaking an already good system, the case for Trend Following as the dominant strategy in an investment portfolio, the amount of volatility that can be regarded as too risky, and Jerry calls out Niels for a future debate regarding the possible uses of multi-timeframe analysis. In this episode, we discuss: The reasons for avoiding a long-only trading system Knowing when 'good enough' is good enough Why investors may be allocating to Trend Following in the wrong amounts When volatility equates to risk Approaches to multi-timeframe analysis Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on https://my.captivate.fm/@RJParkerJr09 (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Rob Carver joins us today to discuss whether it’s a good idea to adjust your strategy during different periods of volatility, Bitcoin’s expected role as an inflation-hedge, whether commodities are more suited to shorter-term trading than other markets, the NFT frenzy & its credibility as an investment asset, volume analysis and whether it can be play worthwhile part in a Trend Following system, and why volatility may not be a good measure of risk. In this episode, we discuss: The case for and against Volatility Targeting Whether Bitcoin can offset any risks from a high-inflationary environment Whether commodities can be suitable for long-term strategies The credibility of NFTs as an asset class Volume analysis as a trading signal Volatility as a measure of risk Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow R

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell’s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making,  complexity versus complicatedness, robotic systematic investing versus human discretionary investing, how to tell the difference between a systematic and discretionary trader by looking at returns only, and why ‘low-cost’ funds can often end up being more expensive than normal. In this episode, we discuss: Whether artificial intelligence has a place in systematic investing Interest rates and their effects on the trading markets How correlations can increase volatility The benefits of a more 'hands-off' approach to poli

Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the challenges of managing large amounts of cash in a high-inflationary environment, the importance of maintaining a healthy attitude during long winning-streaks, the resurgence & resilience of the GameStop short-squeeze, Bitcoin reaching $60,000, the importance of prioritising process over outcome, the new VIX ETFs for Bitcoin & Ethereum, and whether or not Gold is a safe long-term investment. In this episode, we discuss: Smart ways to manage cash during periods of high inflation Staying humble during long winning periods The GameStop short-squeeze New volatility-based ETFs for Cryptocurrencies Why analysing the outcome instead of the process may prove costly in the long run Can we still call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU websi

We have a special episode for you today featuring Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker and renown Systematic Investor Robert Carver, who debate the topic of Volatility Targeting and how actively one should manage open trade equity risk. We also discuss the benefits of ‘Hybrid Trend Following’ versus classical Trend Following, breakouts & moving averages versus other trend indicators, whether the 2020 market crash should have caused systematic investors to update their strategies, and if short positions should still have a place in today’s Trend Following portfolios. In this episode, we discuss: The level of active-management that should be involved in controlling open trade equity risk The benefits and drawbacks of volatility-targeting Modern Trend Following methods compared to classical Trend Following The 2020 ‘Covid Crash’ and its possible long-term effects on systematic investing How important are short positions in a rules-based portfolio? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitte

We’re joined today by Mark Rzepczynski to discuss the return of the GameStop short-squeeze, Trend Following in a high interest-rate environment, the future of AI & machine learning in trading models, the case for including short positions in a portfolio, how to spot a commodity ‘super-cycle’, the different factors driving markets higher, why good news can often be bad news for markets, retail investors opening trades on the wrong ticker symbols, and why Trend Following tends to do better on the long-side. In this episode, we discuss: If holding bonds "stupid"? The problem of being an economic policy engineer Why we have to make a distinguish between complicated and complex systems The value of intuition - coup d'oeil and Clausewitz Robot systematic versus human (discretionary) can you tell the difference? Is there a Turing test and " I Robot" Correlation and volatility The poor quality of forecasts - latest from currency markets  Due diligence and quality of managers. Intraday trends – are they stabl

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on the markets, and why Trend Following on Bitcoin may be a better option than buy & hold. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on Twitter. IT’s TRUE

Today, we discuss Bitcoin’s rise to $50,000 and how to judge its future role in society, Moritz’s incredible start to the year without changing any part of his trading system, CME’s introduction of Ethereum futures, The Big Short’s Michael Burry calling a top in Tesla, India’s proposed Bitcoin ban, and how a fascinating study, using over 1 million investment combinations, showed that a 30% allocation to Trend Following increased risk-adjusted-returns on every single occasion. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Moritz on Twitter. IT’s TRUE

Rob Carver returns to the show today to give us his thoughts on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum & their Gamestop short-squeeze, the gamification of trading, why Robinhood had to suspend trading on Gamestop, the attempted short-squeeze in the Silver market, Rob’s recent article on how to become a systematic trader, Niels’ journey into the CTA industry, the importance of diversifying amongst investment processes as well as securities, the rise of passive investing over active, and whether the ascendency of passive investing will lead to extreme levels of market volatility in the future. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Rob on Twitter. IT’s TRUE

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss the Gamestop short-squeeze, democratisation of the investment industry, the increasing expectation among investors that the Federal Reserve will always prevent prolonged market crashes, the 3 main ingredients for a market bubble, whether we are seeing a bubble in the stock market today, the role of short sellers and short selling, whether the WallStreetBets Reddit forum will prompt newer and tighter regulations in the future, the shift towards passive investing over active investing, what we can learn from crowd behaviour, building trading systems without stop-losses, and rare insights into the John W. Henry trading methodology. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Mark on ht