NAB Morning Call

Friday 27th September 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.ETFs – exchange traded funds – are becoming increasingly popular. So who is buying them? What are they buying? Phil is joined by Chamath de Silva, Head of Fixed Income at Betashares, where he manages their fixed income ETFs portfolio. They talk about the growth in ETFs and what it’s doing to flows. For example, is it driving more investors in search of overseas assets? Also, the range of asset classes covered, and the growth of active funds. And what does it mean for the future of investment advisors and fund managers? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChina is set to issue a lot of bonds to fire the long-awaited Bazooka. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss the market reaction to the speculation that China is, at long last, ready to push ahead with a very sizeable fiscal stimulus. Oil behaved the opposite to what you’d expect from the news, driven by expectations of increased supply from Saudi Arabia and Libya. There’s a lot of European data to absorb today, which could paint a picture f what the ECB will do next. Their next meeting is an each way bet at the moment. Finally, Ray explains why the LDP leadership vote in Japan today could be market moving, Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 26th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe slight risk-on mood we saw after news of potential further stimulus measures in China has ebbed away a little today, particularly in the share market, where indices are generally lower in the US and Europe overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there’s a bit of a reassessment during a session low on data. Expectations for an outside cut by the Fed have fallen slightly on the back of one large individual trade. The Riksbank, though, is confidently cutting rates, suggesting they’ll keep going until they reach their neutral rate, once they’ve decided what that is. Given the focus lately is on watching jobs, Australia’s job vacancies and US jobless claims will prove interesting today. And a night when too many Fed speakers is barely enough. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 25th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere is still some uncertainty about the future direction of US policy, with the Fed’s Michelle Bowman still concerned about a potential return of inflation, whilst most other Fed members are worried about a downturn in employment having a broader impact on the economy. NAB’s Skye Masters says the diversity of opinion is being driven by mixed data, the sharp slowdown in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Report being the latest example. But there is a slight risk-on mood today, driven by hopes that China will offer a comprehensive package to kick start their economy. Meanwhile, the RBA kept rates on hold as expected, and weakness in European PMIs yesterday has heightened expectations for two more cuts by the ECB this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 24th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Monday’s global PMIs were universally disappointing, but the downward trajectory was most pronounced in Europe and, in particularly Germany. It’s created a mixed story in bond movements today, even though equities have fared well. NAB’s Tapas Strickland describes how markets are seeing the relative positions of the US and Europe right now. Today the RBA announces its rate decision, with widespread agreement that they will keep rates on hold. But how long for? And is China about to go for broke on their 5% growth target? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 23rd September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were surprisingly small moves in bond yields on Friday, whilst investors in shares seemed to be momentarily reassessing their optimism after the 50bp cut from the Fed. Nonetheless, two more cuts are assumed this year, with a rising expectation that there will be another big cut before Christmas, assisted by comments from the Fed’s Waller who suggested that inflation is falling faster than expected. The standout move in currencies was the Japanese Yen responding to push-back on the expected timing of the next rate rise by the BoJ’s Governor Ueda. Today, global PMIs are released, giving the latest snapshot on the relative strength of Germany versus the rest of Europe versus the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th September 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.From Super funds to family trusts, John Coombe, Executive Director at JANA, has been providing investment advice for well over three decades. He is one of Australia’s most highly regarded asset managers. So, what’s the secret to his success? Part of the answer, he says, is listening to a client’s needs. The other element is to do with timing. What else? Phil teases out more from John as they take a whistle stop tour around the globe, through various asset classes and the influence of everything from central banks, to governments, to how companies treat investors. It’s an entertaining half an hour that will demonstrate the other reason for John’s success – his understanding of how the world is connected and constantly changing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets have responded positively to the mega-cut from the Fed yesterday, whist the Bank of England plays it cool, keeping rates on hold yesterday. Andrew Bailey said they should be able to reduce rates gradually over time, without giving any clear signal on how gradual or how much time. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates on hold, but with CPI expected to rise today NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders how long they’ve be able to maintain that policy position. He also discusses with Phil yesterday’s employment numbers from Australia and New Zealand’s GDP numbers which, although slightly better than expected, still show an economy in trouble. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPerhaps not surprisingly the Fed opted for the 50bp cut. Markets responded sharply, but then rowed back shortly afterwards as Jerome Powell tried to downplay the significance of the move at the press conference that followed, saying this wasn’t a new pace just a recalibration of policy. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to decipher the language, the revised forecasts and the market response. Next, it’s the BoE, unlikely to move, particularly after a slightly hotter than expected inflation print. Plus, Australian employment numbers and NZ GDP today.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been no surprises in US economic data overnight. Retail sales, industrial production and manufacturing weren’t far off expectations. So, do they all point to a soft landing? And if that’s the scenario, why would the Fed delay a big rate cut? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Ken Crompton, less than 24 hours from the FOMC decision, which includes revised forecasts and a new dot plot. There’s also the question as to whether the Bank of Canada will move to a faster cutting schedule, given CPI actually showed deflation last month. UK CPI is the main figure today – in particular the sticky services inflation. And, could the ECB be forced to cut rates faster in face of a slowing economy, with the latest ZEW survey for Germany showing confidence has plummeted as hopes of a recovery subside.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarket pricing moved further in favour of a 50bpcut from the fed this week. Does that mean the Fed, who are expected to make at least one big cut before Christmas, side with the market? It makes it easier for them to walk through an open door, says JBWere’s Sally Auld on this morning’s podcast. There’s also discussion about Paul Krugman’s tweets overnight, suggesting that a data dependent Fed risks becoming Milton Friedman’s fool in the shower — the guy who alternately freezing and scalding himself because he’s too data-dependent. Canada’s CPI print is the only major data release of the day. What does it mean for the BoC, and how long do they stay in the shower for before they leave those taps alone? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBig or small, that’s the question this week. Will the Fed go for a 50bp cut? If the plan is to do that at some point this year, why not now? That’s one of the arguments being touted, which Phil discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill. Certainly, equity markets seem to be expecting a larger cut, with the Russell 2000 showing particularly strong growth on Friday. Meanwhile softer activity data from China suggests they are sliding further away from their 5% growth target, but there’s no indication of when the Politburo will implement new policies beyond the remit of the PBoC.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th September 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The Labour Market Report is one of the most eagerly awaited monthly releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It’s even more crucial at times like now, when it is so influential on central bank policy. But in many countries gathering this data is proving difficult. People are less prepared to participate, and gathering reliable information is becoming more costly. That’s not been an issue in Australia, according to Bjorn Jarvis, the ABS’s Head of Labour Statistics. He says the Australian population is generally very civic minded. That makes things easier. In this half hour Weekend edition Phil talks to Bjorn about how the data is collected and analysed and what trends have surprised him over recent years. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday13th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe ECB cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 percent, as expected. The question is, will there be more to come soon. The growth forecast has been downgraded slightly. Mario Draghi’s report is asking for substantial investment to see substantive growth in Europe and last month the ECB’s Ollie Rehn warned of the prospect of negative growth if a re-elected President Trump goes heavy on tariffs. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril gives his take on the ECB’s dilemma. We also look at US PPI and jobless claims overnight, and the rising government deficit. Plus, the impact of Hurricane Francine and what to expect from China’s activity data over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABKamala Harris “won“ the Presidential debate, by most accounts, and US core GDP showed a slight tick up last month. Neither bit of news really moved the markets. Harris still has to win the election and, although a rise in CPI may be concerning, the headline rate came down for the fifth month in a row. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it hasn’t changed the pricing for cuts by year end, it might just push back a 50bp cut further than next week. The ECB is expected to cut rates today, whilst the BoE will be balancing up higher job numbers this week, with another flat GDP read overnight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s been sizable falls in oil prices overnight, driven by a downward revision to OPEC+ forecasts for this year and next. NAB’s Skye Masters talks about the market response to the oil price and the slowdown more generally. She suggests it’ll make next week’s forecasts and dot plot from the Fed particularly interesting. We shouldn’t expect too much of a reaction to the US CPI numbers today and, unless there’s an overwhelming winner in the TV debate today, it’s probably too early to resume the Trump trade. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities rose sharply to the close overnight. Apple shares rose less than most, with prices actually falling during the release of the new iPhone 16, which clearly failed to impress markets. But that wasn’t enough to stop a lot of dip-buying during a session largely devoid of data releases. There’s a bit more today with the latest employment data for the UK, numbers that could definitely influence the direction of the Bank of England next week. Otherwise, markets wait for US CPI and the big debate, both more than a day away. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 9th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhilst the US unemployment rate came in as expected on Friday, at 4.2 percent, it was downward revision to the previous two months numbers that seem to have caused the most consternation. With the Fed signalling their focus is on ensuring there isn’t a sudden downturn in employment, will these numbers raise the expectations that the cut next week will be a big one. Not yet says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, even though there has been a notable change in language from the Fed. Friday also saw a rise in demand for housing loans in Australia – adding to the RBA’s argument that there’s no need to move quickly to cutting rates. The week ahead includes US CPI numbers and an interest rate decision from the ECB. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th September 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.China won’t achieve its 5% growth target this year. Yan Wang, Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist at Alpine Macro, says the forward indicators show it won’t happen. So, what next for China? Yan says a shift in government policy is needed. Their focus has been on developing new, higher income sectors, such as EV manufacture. That makes perfect sense. But there’s no support on the demand side of the economy, which is languishing under low confidence levels, less spending and a shrinking money supply. All that can be turned around, but that takes a change in thinking from Beijing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe are less than a day away from the US non-farm payrolls numbers, which are likely to determine whether the Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp or 50bp at this month’s meeting. NAB’s Ray Attrill says if the numbers are in-line with expectations he reckons that’ll solidify pricing for a 25bp cut, but anything weaker would push expectations towards 50bp. It’ll be interesting to see the take of two prominent Fed speakers – Williams and Waller - a couple of hours after the event. Meanwhile Michelle Bullock reiterated the need to keep rates high to fight inflation, arguing that inflation does more damage than higher rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.