Bloomberg Surveillance

Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity Chief Market Strategist, says he would not bet against the market and that this is a good time to remain neutral. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester says it’s going to take time for economy to reopen and that it needs to be done very carefully. Dr. Andrew Pekosz, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health Professor and Virologist, says that right now there really is no good evidence to suggest that people are getting reinfected after their first exposure. Jared Bernstein, Center on Budget and Policy Administration Senior Fellow and Former Economic Adviser to Vice President Joseph Biden, says the U.S. is very behind the curve on testing for COVID-19.

Savita Subramanian, Bank of America Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy, says we're in a fast and furious market. Jason Farley, Johns Hopkins University Professor of Nursing, says we are being very resilient in our efforts to make sure we have enough personal protective equipment. Michelle Meyer, BofA Securities Head of U.S. Economics, says the latest U.S. jobless claims numbers suggest an unemployment rate of 14%-15%. Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Securities Global Head of Economic Research, says unemployment is short of Great Depression levels in large part due to the Fed and Congress. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, says the current plan to reopen the economy is a mess because of the White House administration. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Co-Chairman and host of Peer-to-Peer Conversations, discusses his interview with Didi President Jean Liu.

Joseph Stiglitz, Columbia University Professor, says Trump's decision to withhold W.H.O. funding is like defunding a fire department in the middle of a fire. Lauren Sauer Johns Hopkins University Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, says a coronavirus vaccine for the general public is likely one year away. Ken Leon, CFRA Director of Equity Research, says there is real risk in commercial real estate and construction at this time. Bill Priest, Epoch Investment Partners Executive Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer, says don't expect any buybacks by any U.S. bank this year.

Tom Michaud, KBW CEO, says he has never seen a recession come this quickly and this hard. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, warns that earnings season will show collateral damage from the coronavirus pandemic. Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Acting Chief Economist, says the unemployment rate will not go back to 3.5 percent this year. Michelle Patch, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing Assistant Professor, details the physical and emotional toll taken on by medical workers during the COVID-19 epidemic. Harry Tchilinguirian, BNP Paribas Head of Commodity Research & Senior Oil Analyst, does not expect a sustained recovery in the oil price until pent-up demand is released in Q3.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida says the central bank has the tools needed to keep the U.S. out of a deflationary trap, even as the coronavirus deals a severe hit to the economy. Dennis Gartman, Retired Editor of the Gartman Letter, says this is a time to own gold. Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley Head of Banks & Diversified Finance Research looks ahead to bank earnings and discusses the metrics she says will matter the most. Dr. Josh Sharfstein, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health Vice Dean of Public Health Practice and Community Engagement, says people who were reasonably sick from the coronavirus infection and got better are unlikely to get that sick again.

James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist & CIO Americas, says the Fed is using the most aggressive tools it has to keep money flowing. Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, says the world needs massive, well-targeted measures to help combat the coronavirus crisis. Ed Morse, Citi Research Global Head of Commodities, discusses President Trump's options if OPEC+ doesn't reach a deal. Jason Farley, Johns Hopkins University Professor of Nursing, says it is the immune system's response to the virus that is causing the issue, rather than the virus itself.

Troy Gayeski, Skybridge Capital Partner Co-Chief Investment Officer & Senior Portfolio Manager, says if the market does not bottom until after Q2, there will be a much longer downside stretch than anticipated. Kathy Hochul, New York Lieutenant Governor, says broad virus testing is needed before the New York economy reopens. Stephen Roach, Yale University Professor, former Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman and former Morgan Stanley Chief Economist, says countries need to be careful about pointing fingers during this crisis. Lauren Sauer, Johns Hopkins University Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, discusses how hospitals are handling the surge of coronavirus patients. Paul Sankey, Mizuho Americas Oil & Gas Analyst, says the market will deliver cuts, and they will be deeper than any OPEC+ agreements.

Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research Strategy, says China's global influence will increase during the coronavirus crisis. Gabriela Santos, JPM Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says that the U.S. may be one of the last countries to rid itself of the coronavirus crisis, from a health and economic perspective. William White, Former Chairman of the OECD Economic and Development Review Committee, is fearful that so much money-printing for so long won't re-stimulate the economy after the crisis is over. Ron Temple, Lazard Asset Management Co-Head Of Multi Asset Head of US Equity & Managing Director, says we need to see a continuation of Fed and fiscal stimulus. Alessandro Rebucci, Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School Associate Professor of Economics & Finance, says emerging markets will be put under extreme strain and are much less capable of absorbing the health dimensions of the coronavirus crisis.

Charles Kantor, Neuberger Berman Long Short Fund Senior Portfolio Manager, is very bullish on America's recovery, saying there is more than enough federal stimulus for now. Joyce Chang, JPMorgan Chair of Global Research, says revisions on dividends and earnings will continue. Joshua Sharfstein, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health Vice Dean for Public Health Practice and Community Engagement, says it's important to temper expectations about potential coronavirus treatments. Ted Alden, CFR Senior Fellow & Author of "Failure to Adjust: How Americans Got Left Behind in the Global Economy," says there are a lot of incentives now for countries to pursue more nationalist policies. Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley Global Oil Strategist, says the oil market is trading at an unusually deep discount.

Jeffrey Rosenberg, Senior Portfolio Manager on BlackRock's Systematic Fixed Income Team, believes it will be a long time before consumer behavior and confidence is restored in the U.S. Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, says a strong social safety net will keep a coronavirus recession from becoming a depression. Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says he does not expect to see any movements in regards to tariffs right now. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Chief Oil Analyst, says no amount of oil supply cut will take care of the demand losses.

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets, says the end of March market rally was due to a positive reaction out of Washington. Jason Furman, Harvard University professor and Former Obama Economic Advisor, says there will be very high unemployment for the rest of this year and next year. Michael Gapen, Barclays Chief U.S. Economist, says March jobs report is already old news; jobless claims data is the most important information we have. Jonathan Miller, Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants, details how the housing market is dealing with fallout from the coronavirus.

Olivier Blanchard, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow, says getting the infection rate down is an absolute priority. Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President, says the post-pandemic economic recovery will not be as powerful as hoped because of higher debt burdens. Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs Advisory Director & Senior Investment Strategist, says that U.S. monetary and fiscal policy is moving in the right direction. Michael Shaoul, Marketfield Asset Management Chairman & Portfolio Manager, says there is nothing normal about where markets are today. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman, breaks down his interview with Former U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis.

Carmen Reinhart, Harvard Kennedy School Professor of the International Finance System, says the coronavirus, Saudi-Russia oil war, and risk of debt defaults have created a perfect storm for emerging markets. Mohamed Younis, Gallup Editor in Chief, reports that 52% of working Americans say their financial situation has already been affected by the coronavirus. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, says the speed and viability of consumer spending post-crisis will be challenging. Shahab Jalinoos Credit Suisse Head of FX and Macro Trading Strategy, expects dollar strength to be relatively short-term. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives Founder & President, says the effectiveness of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures will determine if businesses can stay open and restart operations.

Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Global Head of Commodities & Derivatives Research, expects to see the steepest decline in global oil consumption before the summer. James Bullard, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President, says the Fed has capacity to carry 10% more debt. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist and Managing Director of Global Research, says he wouldn't be surprised to see more Fed action. Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says the United States will become less dependent on single supply sources in the future as a result of the coronavirus. Sebastien Galy, Nordea Bank Senior Macro Strategist, believes the Fed will continue to surprise and adapt to this brutal situation.

Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, says there will be no second half rebound in 2020 if businesses that do not borrow bonds go bankrupt. Robert Kaplan, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President, sees a substantial contraction in the second quarter, but says the economy will get stronger heading into 2021. Raphael Bostic, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President, says the economy may rebound quite robustly once the public health crisis is under control. Darrell Cronk, Wells Fargo Wealth & Investment Management CIO, says it is still a good idea to remain defensive on stocks. Dr. Krutika Kuppalli, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security Fellow and Infectious Disease Physician, says there will be a resurgence in the number of coronavirus cases if businesses open too soon.

David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says the economy should be held in suspended animation until coronavirus is under control. Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says this is just the beginning of jobless claims being elevated. Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House Head of U.S. and Americas Programme, says the Senate's $2 trillion stimulus package is extraordinary but the cause of the coronavirus pandemic must still be dealt with. Karen G. Mills, Former Head of the U.S. Small Business Administration, estimates more than half of the 3.3 million U.S. jobs lost were from small businesses.

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, believes we are entering a steep recession with tremendous policy response to follow. Raghuram Rajan, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Professor and former RBI Governor, discusses what India needs to do to combat the coronavirus crisis as the country locks down its population of 1.3 billion people. Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Founder & Chief Economist, says we don't know the state of the economy of any major country in the world right now. Pavlina Tcherneva, Bard College Associate Professor of Economics, says the U.S. fiscal stimulus plan's focus on income support is the right thing to do. Jared Bernstein, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Senior Fellow, says state fiscal relief is an essential missing part of congress's coronavirus stimulus package.

Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity & Derivatives Strategist, says sellers are exhausted and a bottoming process is starting. Angela Rasmussen, Columbia University Virologist, says opening back up parts of the U.S. economy is a bad idea without further virus testing. Randall Kroszner, Former Federal Reserve Board Member, says the Fed's actions have been crucial in avoiding a financial crisis so far. Bob Crandall, Former AMR Corp. President, CEO & Chairman, says the government needs to make a public investment in the airline industry in order to keep it functional. Leland Miller, China Beige Book CEO, says the idea of a full economic recovery any time soon is nonsense.

Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Global Head of Economic Research, says there is no question that the economy is going into free-fall in the near term. Mike Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, says the Fed is starting to get some traction as the central bank announces a massive second wave of initiatives to support the U.S. economy. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says congress must act now to help all sides of the economy. Ben Laidler, Tower Hudson Research CEO, expects a lot more pain for the financials.

Steve Wieting, Citi Private Bank Global Chief Investment Strategist, says this is a bad time to sell investments. Patrick Armstrong, Plurimi Wealth CIO, says earnings are going to be decimated for a lot of industries in Q2. Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Global Head of Commodities & Derivatives Research, says the hardest part of this crisis is not knowing the demand growth we'll get in Q2. Michelle Meyer, Bank of America Head of U.S. Economics predicts U.S. GDP will drop 12% in the second quarter.